Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 10, Scene
MoeMaKa (October 11, 2024)
Regarding Myanmar, ASEAN announced that it will continue adhering to its Five-Point Consensus, and has called on China to provide more assistance concerning the Myanmar crisis.
The annual ASEAN Summit, chaired by Laos this year, is currently taking place, and discussions regarding Myanmar have led to some important conclusions. One of the prominent outcomes is that ASEAN reaffirmed its commitment to the Five-Point Consensus, which was established in April 2021. In addition, ASEAN has requested that China increase its involvement in resolving Myanmar’s crisis.
Recently, during the Mekong-Lancang Summit, China presented its guiding principles, including its “Three No’s” policy, to the region and the international community. Although China maintains a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, it has been known to strategically engage with Myanmar’s armed ethnic groups along its border, aligning its actions with its own foreign policy needs. This could involve border closures, assistance, or even sanctions, as necessary.
Given that Myanmar shares a long border with China, it is natural for China to prioritize border security and stability. By ensuring that Myanmar remains a buffer zone, China seeks to prevent the involvement of other major powers within its borders.
On Myanmar, ASEAN has confirmed that it will continue to pursue the Five-Point Consensus. However, it has also acknowledged its limitations in influencing the country’s internal armed conflicts. Thus, ASEAN has appealed to China, which holds significant influence over some of Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, particularly in northern Shan State and Kachin State.
China has already been involved in Myanmar’s affairs for quite some time, even before ASEAN’s request. For instance, a recent leak from a late-August meeting between Deng Xijun, China’s special envoy for Myanmar, and the Wa armed group shed light on China’s behind-the-scenes involvement. China’s foreign policy, driven by its practical interests, does not prioritize democracy or federalism in Myanmar. Instead, it seeks a stable outcome where no single side dominates, avoiding a prolonged civil war scenario.
China also opposes Western engagement, particularly from the U.S., with ethnic armed groups in northern Shan and Kachin states, viewing them with suspicion.
In recent days, the Kokang armed group has issued an order prohibiting its leaders from attending Western-backed meetings and discussions, which has circulated widely on social media.
While the Kokang group has gained military successes, including the capture of cities and military headquarters controlled by the junta, their long-term independence from China is unlikely. Due to their landlocked geography and reliance on Chinese trade routes, they are unable to completely distance themselves from China, especially when facing challenges from the Myanmar military.
Given these circumstances, China is closely monitoring ethnic and PDF (People’s Defense Force) armed groups, as well as political organizations and civil society groups that receive humanitarian aid from Western countries. China remains deeply suspicious of these groups, wary of Western influence expanding in the region.