Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 9
(MoeMaKa) October 10, 2024
Indonesia’s Talks on Myanmar, ASEAN Summit, and Upcoming Dialogues on Myanmar’s Situation
Recently, there has been a series of significant discussions regarding Myanmar’s crisis. These include the regular ASEAN Summit in Laos and the pre-summit discussions on Myanmar held in Jakarta, Indonesia. Additionally, an informal dialogue on Myanmar, led by Thailand, is scheduled for December. These discussions aim to urge armed groups involved in Myanmar’s conflict to cease fighting and engage in negotiations. Neighboring countries and global powers are encouraging these efforts.
Before these latest talks, India hosted an exchange event through its Council on World Affairs, attended by the Foreign Minister and representatives from the National Unity Government (NUG) and some ethnic armed groups based along Myanmar’s western borders.
From these events, it is evident that neighboring countries and global powers are becoming increasingly active in pushing for dialogue to resolve Myanmar’s armed conflict. Since late 2021, ASEAN, neighboring countries, and the international community have been calling for political dialogue to address Myanmar’s issues, but recent efforts mark the first time such inclusive talks involving all relevant parties have been heavily pushed forward.
What Does This New Push Signify?
Although global powers like China, India, and the United States have conflicting interests regarding Myanmar, they seem to share a basic understanding that dialogue, rather than continued fighting, is the way to resolve the situation.
The conflict in Myanmar is not one involving external forces but a civil war between domestic armed groups. The international community believes that a peaceful solution through dialogue is possible. For China and the U.S., Myanmar’s issue is both an internal matter and one that impacts regional security and broader international dynamics. For example, China is keen to ensure that Myanmar remains a buffer zone that is not dominated by U.S.-aligned forces. Similarly, Russia, seeing parallels between Myanmar and Ukraine, views foreign intervention as unacceptable, fearing NATO-like involvement in its neighboring regions. This dynamic is evident in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which shows no signs of peaceful resolution.
China, on the other hand, has consistently communicated, even during recent meetings, that it does not want international intervention in Myanmar. In the August Mekong-Lancang meetings, China reiterated its stance that the Myanmar issue should remain a domestic matter.
The U.S. Perspective on Myanmar
While the U.S. is increasingly considering deeper involvement in Myanmar’s crisis, it is unclear on what grounds it would intervene to prevent further conflict. Although Washington has expressed concerns about human rights abuses and rejected the legitimacy of the upcoming 2025 elections, there is little clarity on its strategic position toward China and Myanmar.
Ongoing Conflict and the Humanitarian Crisis
As the internal conflict in Myanmar nears its fourth year, over 6% of the country’s population has become displaced. In addition to civil war, the country has been recently hit by severe flooding, which could lead to food shortages. There is a looming threat of more refugees and migrant workers seeking shelter in neighboring countries like Thailand, which is prompting further discussions between ASEAN nations on finding solutions to these humanitarian crises.
Limited Prospects for Negotiation
For some ethnic armed groups and NUG/PDF factions, the belief persists that they are nearing the final battle. This makes the prospect of resolving the conflict through negotiations increasingly unlikely. The military junta, which seized power, shows no signs of stepping back from Myanmar’s political stage or taking accountability for ongoing war crimes and human rights violations. As a result, the Burmese public’s trust in a peaceful resolution remains low.