Myanmar Discussions in Indonesia and the Road Ahead

Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 4th View
(MoeMaKa, October 5, 2024)

Myanmar Discussions in Indonesia and the Road Ahead

On October 4th and 5th, a meeting focused on finding a solution to Myanmar’s crisis is being held in Indonesia, before the ASEAN summit hosted by Laos, the current rotating chair of ASEAN. It has been reported that representatives from Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) have been invited to attend this meeting.

Since the military coup, Myanmar’s political crisis has gradually transformed into armed conflict and civil war over the past three years. There have been battles for control of towns and military bases, destruction of roads and bridges, blockades, and a growing sense of insecurity for civilians. These conditions have led to refugees fleeing to neighboring countries, seeking work or safety, including tens of thousands of young people who have fled conscription by crossing into neighboring Thailand and Malaysia. This refugee crisis has made it essential for ASEAN to address the issue of Myanmar.

Myanmar’s internal conflict is no longer just a domestic problem but has spilled over into the region, affecting neighboring countries. This has made it necessary for ASEAN to seek a solution.

Soon after the coup, in Jakarta, Indonesia, ASEAN held a meeting on Myanmar’s crisis and invited the military junta’s leaders. At that meeting, the junta agreed to the “Five-Point Consensus” proposed by ASEAN. However, three years later, it is clear that the junta has failed to implement any of these points.

Another recent development is from August 27th, when China’s Special Representative for Asian Affairs, Deng Xijun, met with leaders of the United Wa State Party/Army (UWSP/UWSA) in Pu’er City, southern Yunnan Province. According to a report by *Myanmar NOW*, China pressed the UWSA to fully cooperate in its comprehensive sanctions against the MNDAA and Kokang region.

In a statement following the meeting, Deng Xijun reiterated that Myanmar’s military cannot be replaced by the NUG or the NLD led by Aung San Suu Kyi, and that China would never accept a victory by the NUG and PDF groups aligned with Western countries. Additionally, China does not intend to lift its blockade on the Kokang region and may even intensify sanctions, said the Chinese special envoy to Wa leaders.

While China’s official stance on international platforms is non-interference in Myanmar’s internal affairs, as articulated by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, its actions, including the sanctions on the MNDAA and pressure on the Wa leaders, show a different reality. The divergence between China’s public statements and its actual involvement in Myanmar’s affairs has become increasingly evident.

The future of Myanmar and the revolutionary path pursued by its people and ethnic armed groups appears to be in direct opposition to the plans of neighboring countries and China, which seem aligned with the military dictatorship. For Myanmar’s people, this seems like an unavoidable reality, as they continue to distance themselves from the Union founded by the military.

The people of Myanmar, along with their chosen leaders, must continue to prove their commitment to breaking away from the military-controlled state. They are likely to do this not just through words but through further sacrifices of blood, sweat, and tears in their struggle.