Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 25 Scene
(MoeMaKa) October 26, 2024
MNDAA Leader’s Meeting in China; Military Council’s Goal to Retake Lashio
As the “Operation 1027” joint offensive by three armed groups marks its first anniversary, the military council is taking various measures to reclaim Lashio, a key administrative city in northern Shan State. This city, vital to the China-Myanmar border trade, is Myanmar’s second most significant trade hub after Mandalay. Beyond trade, Lashio is infamous for issues like drug trafficking and human trafficking. Known for its network of civilian and ethnic armed groups, Lashio has become a focal point for the military council’s efforts to regain control.
Since MNDAA captured Lashio and the northeastern military headquarters in late July and early August, almost three months have passed. The military council, pressured by airstrikes and Chinese influence, is looking to either negotiate a withdrawal or launch a ground assault to recapture the city. MNDAA’s capture of Lashio and the headquarters, with support from PDF allies, marks a significant victory for anti-military forces in the north.
However, China views MNDAA’s takeover as a strategic misstep, seeing the offensive toward central Myanmar as a threat to national stability and security, both politically and strategically. This perspective has prompted diplomatic warnings and actions to avoid further destabilization. During Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Naypyidaw in mid-August, China conveyed its support for central government authority in Myanmar. Wang Yi further emphasized non-interference in Myanmar’s affairs at a regional Mekong-Lancang meeting in Thailand.
This has led the military council to rely more heavily on China and plan new offensives in northern Shan. China appears to tolerate the military council’s efforts to regain lost territories, despite calls to halt bombings in contested towns.
China’s decisions reflect its political stance: as a non-democratic state, it does not endorse liberal democracy in neighboring nations. Its stance in Myanmar is more about safeguarding its influence than supporting any particular side.
Another reason for China’s stance is its rivalry with the U.S., which could threaten China’s interests if the U.S. gains influence through Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups near the Chinese border. China is therefore likely to support countering any group with close ties to the U.S., balancing the power dynamics to protect its interests.
The U.S. does not seem as deeply involved in Myanmar’s internal conflicts as China, allowing China to shape the influence it seeks over Myanmar’s affairs. These dynamics mean that ethnic armed groups near the Chinese border must carefully consider their goals and understand the need to defend their territory independently, while keeping broader regional pressures in mind.