Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 5
(MoeMaKa) October 6, 2024
Is Myanmar on a crossroads for a Federal Union or a split path?
A recent discussion on Myanmar was held in Jakarta, led by Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with top international diplomats participating. This two-day meeting took place on October 4 and 5, focusing on Myanmar’s political crisis.
According to reports, representatives from the United Nations, the European Union (EU), ASEAN, and Indonesia, along with opposition groups like the National Unity Government (NUG), were said to have attended. However, NUG spokespeople have declined to confirm this information.
It is also reported that access to news coverage and photo documentation of the event was restricted.
During the discussions, according to BBC sources, some Myanmar revolutionary forces opposing the military, along with a few domestic political parties, attended. The BBC sources said that the NUG, K2C (which includes the Karen National Union – KNU, Karenni National Progressive Party – KNPP, Chin National Front – CNF), and General Ywet Sit of the Shan Restoration Council (RCSS) were all present in Jakarta.
One source said, “It is known that Daw Zin Mar Aung, the NUG’s foreign minister, was in attendance. Another domestic party also participated, and they submitted a paper on the political exit strategy for Myanmar, with some members from the NLD party inside the country contributing.”
Another source stated, “The draft presented by domestic political groups included modified proposals like release, negotiation, and meeting. It called for the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, agreements on political settlements, and discussions before considering an election.”
This meeting was organized by Indonesia ahead of the upcoming ASEAN summit, to be held in Laos from October 6 to 11.
RFA reported that domestic political actors had sent a position paper to the Jakarta talks, facilitated by the meeting organizers themselves. A source claimed that agreements from internal Myanmar discussions were conveyed to the forum.
“There were many former political prisoners and senior political figures. They organized a small seminar in order to produce a position for the Jakarta forum,” said the source.
Looking at the current political trajectory of Indonesia, the outgoing government of President Joko Widodo (of the PDI-P party) will soon be replaced by a new administration led by former defense minister General Prabowo, who won the October 20, 2024 election. General Prabowo, who has ties to the military regime of former dictator Suharto, represents the return of military influence in Indonesia’s politics, with civilian leaders working in tandem with military factions. Indonesian citizens are feeling that civilian leadership ends up cooperating with the military, even when they win power.
Within ASEAN, there are countries aligned with the West and those favoring China, and this dynamic influences Myanmar’s ongoing discussions. Indonesia, which has maintained strong relations with the West, seems to be pushing for an election as a solution to Myanmar’s political crisis.
Reflecting on Myanmar’s political struggles, it’s evident that from before 2010, both the Myanmar public and international community had hoped for dialogue and resolution between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s opposition and the military. In 2012, the NLD, led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, chose to engage with the military through elections, attempting to find a peaceful resolution.
However, former opposition leader U Win Tin of the 88 Movement had warned at the time that this approach was only a temporary truce. He argued that the opposition should break away from this middle path, which he called a “halfway point,” and move towards a federal democracy. His prediction seemed to come true when the military seized power again in 2021, ending the fragile cooperation with the civilian government.
In Thailand, civilian governments have tried to emerge, but military and corporate elites have retained control. The younger generation, which once led the “Three-Finger Salute” revolutions in Hong Kong, Thailand, and Myanmar, now face similar crossroads.
Now, over three and a half years since the Myanmar Spring Revolution began, it’s worth revisiting U Win Tin’s words. He stated in 2013 that Myanmar had reached a crossroads and would soon need to break away from the military’s shadow. The question remains today: Is Myanmar still stuck in the middle of the road, or has it already chosen a new path?