Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 19 Scene
(MoeMaKa) October 20, 2024
China’s Growing Involvement in Myanmar’s Situation, Attack on Chinese Consulate in Mandalay
Since the second phase of Operation 1027 began in late July, following changes in the control of territories by the Northern Brotherhood of Three Armed Groups, China’s involvement in Myanmar’s affairs has become more apparent. This was noticed when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Naypyidaw, and at the Mekong-Lancang summit in Chiang Mai, Thailand, where China’s firm stance on Myanmar was revealed. Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xijun also met with the Wa armed group in a city in Yunnan, China, to discuss the military developments, particularly regarding the takeover of Lashio and the headquarters of Shan State North. The open warnings made during these meetings show China’s increasing involvement and pressure regarding Myanmar’s situation.
From the records of the meeting between the Wa armed group and Special Envoy Deng Xijun, it became clear that China is against the current military government’s actions and does not want to see power struggles or armed groups gaining control in various states and regions within Myanmar. China’s desire is to see an immediate end to the military attacks on military bases and cities, reflecting its position and interests.
Before these meeting records were leaked, China’s stance on Myanmar was only speculated, and assumptions were made about China’s role in the early stages of Operation 1027. There were rumors that China’s tacit approval led to the Kokang, Ta’ang, and Arakan groups launching territorial offensives and city takeovers. Some even speculated that China was secretly providing military and technical assistance. There were also pro-military government groups and nationalistic protesters, under the military council’s approval, who demonstrated against China.
However, the second phase of the operation, combined with China’s opposition to the territorial takeovers, led to a change. China reportedly warned the ethnic armed groups, such as the Kokang, Wa, Ta’ang, and Kachin, which are based near the Chinese border, that if the fighting continues, China may close its border gates. After the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) seized control of Panwa in Kachin State from the NDAK, led by Zakhong Ting Ying, border gates between KIA-controlled areas and China were closed, and similar actions were seen in areas controlled by the Kokang armed group in northern Shan State. China also reportedly warned the Wa armed group about potential further actions.
China’s approach to Myanmar’s political situation remains pragmatic. While economically China practices a market economy, politically it maintains strict governance under a one-party system, showing no interest in supporting Myanmar’s democratic movements or federal union aspirations. China’s main concern seems to be ensuring that Myanmar remains under the control of a stable political or military force, be it the NLD or the military council, so long as no external powers significantly influence Myanmar, particularly from major global actors.
These considerations from China have disillusioned the revolutionary forces in Myanmar, and amid ongoing military strikes, aerial bombardments by the military council continue to result in more losses for the revolutionary groups. This has fueled anti-China sentiment among the people, who view China’s role as sustaining the military council’s aggressive actions.
On October 19, a bombing attack targeted the Chinese consulate in Mandalay. It is believed the attack involved a device launched from a distance, possibly targeting security personnel outside the consulate. However, the responsible group has not yet been identified. The National Unity Government (NUG) quickly condemned the attack on the diplomatic building, stating their opposition to acts of violence against international embassies.
The growing anti-China sentiment among the armed groups in different regions suggests that a local PDF group might have carried out this attack. This incident may force China to reassess its stance on Myanmar’s situation.