Myanmar Spring Chronicle – September 15th
(MoeMaKa, September 16, 2024)
What could be the consequences of war and floods?
In Myanmar, where armed conflicts are erupting across the country, the consequences of war include internal displacement, destruction of homes by arson, civilian casualties, abductions, forced recruitment, and the shutdown of entire states, limiting the movement of goods and people. Skyrocketing prices, shortages of supplies, and the devastation of towns from military occupation and arson are common occurrences. Almost everyone living in Myanmar faces one or more of these hardships daily.
The Myanmar military, which has been involved in the political landscape for over seven decades, initially emerged from the fight for independence from colonial rule. After six decades of controlling the political and military powers, the army now faces a political and military defeat.
In ethnic regions, the Myanmar army, often referred to as the “Tatmadaw,” is experiencing losses of territory and military bases, something unprecedented in its history. Meanwhile, some ethnic armed groups are seizing territories they’ve never controlled before and are eager to formalize their control.
For instance, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has taken control of areas like Nampaka, Kutkai, and Mogok, near the Chinese border in northern Shan State. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has captured Laukkaing, Chinshwehaw, and towns in northern Shan State like Theinni and Lashio. The Arakan Army (AA) has also seized many towns, including airports and naval bases, marking one of the most successful armed insurgencies in ethnic history.
Unlike previous decades, where conflicts were concentrated in rural areas, fighting has now spread to cities and state capitals, resulting in mass displacement. Millions of people have fled their homes, leaving behind their livelihoods, with hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons across the country.
With millions of displaced people, the number of combatants in Myanmar’s armed conflicts has also risen significantly. The Myanmar military alone may have between 200,000 and 400,000 troops. When combined with ethnic armed groups and the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) affiliated with the National Unity Government (NUG), the number of armed forces could exceed 500,000.
In regions affected by the conflict, farming, transportation, and commerce have all been disrupted. Manufacturing has declined, and the military’s expenses are funded by taxes collected from the population and the country’s natural resources.
These circumstances, combined with ongoing wars, declining agricultural output, and economic downturns, are pushing Myanmar toward a food crisis. There are concerns that Myanmar, once one of the world’s top rice exporters, may face severe food shortages in the coming years.
Adding to these difficulties, the remnants of a storm recently struck Myanmar, bringing heavy rainfall, floods, landslides, and loss of life. While natural disasters like floods and storms are affecting many parts of the world due to global climate change, for a country like Myanmar, already weakened by war, these disasters further exacerbate the suffering.
The military regime’s inability to adequately carry out relief efforts, coupled with a lack of trust between the armed groups and the public, and the regime’s focus on political and military gains rather than disaster response, has worsened the humanitarian impact of these natural disasters.
Floods in Myanmar’s agricultural regions, already weakened by war, are expected to further damage the country’s food production. There are growing concerns that Myanmar, once a global leader in rice exports, could face significant food shortages in the near future.