Myanmar Spring Chronicle – September 8
(MoeMaKa) September 9, 2024
Debate on a Collapsing Nation, a Fragmented State, or a Country on the Brink of Disintegration
As Myanmar faces an uncertain future, various political analysts, scholars, and experts on Myanmar are sharing their views and predictions. These perspectives, whether from the experts themselves or the media, have sparked widespread discussions about the potential outcomes for the country. Social media and news outlets are filled with live discussions, making it impossible to avoid these debates.
Regarding military activities, such as the capture of cities, regions, and military bases, internet discussions are overflowing with interviews and plans from armed groups and battalion leaders. It’s overwhelming to keep track of what to listen to.
Recently, BBC Burmese aired an episode of “Myanmar View,” where they interviewed Dr. Miemie Win Byrd, a military-civil relations expert, and Dr. Min Zaw Oo, a scholar from the Southeast Asia Program at Washington’s CSIS. Dr. Miemie Win Byrd suggested that Myanmar’s military is nearing collapse and assessed that the problems, challenges, and threats that might emerge post-collapse are solvable. She also noted an unprecedented level of interaction, contact, and collaboration between ethnic armed groups.
On the other hand, Dr. Min Zaw Oo warned that Myanmar is on the verge of becoming a failed and fragmented state. He expressed doubts about the possibility of democracy being practiced by the various ethnic armed groups, which are not based on political ideologies but ethnic identity. He predicted that Myanmar might move closer to being a disintegrated state rather than just a failed one.
These analyses have sparked mixed reactions on social media. While it’s clear that the majority of Myanmar’s people want the military defeated, there’s also recognition that the hatred toward the military comes from its history of coups, suppression of protests, mass arrests, and massacres. However, there are also doubts about the possibility of peaceful cooperation between ethnic armed groups, as Dr. Miemie Win Byrd suggests.
Dr. Min Zaw Oo highlighted the fact that ethnic armed groups are not necessarily driven by strong political ideologies, despite their opposition to military dictatorship. He questioned whether they can truly build a democratic system.
As Myanmar’s military continues to be attacked and possibly collapses, the challenges of uniting the country or maintaining a federal union remain a concern for many. For example, in northern Shan State, disputes over territory, governance, and taxation among ethnic armed groups have escalated since early this year. There have been territorial conflicts between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), as well as between the TNLA and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). Territorial disputes and conflicts have also occurred between the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP/SSA) and the TNLA over control of camps and regions.
These territorial disputes raise concerns about whether they will be resolved or worsen over time. Despite the threat of disintegration, some worry that Myanmar could break apart into smaller states if such conflicts continue. There are also questions about whether alliances or coalitions of ethnic armed groups, like the National Democratic Front (NDF) before 1988, will emerge. However, as of now, such a unified front has not yet appeared.