Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 10 Scene
(MoeMaKa) – August 11, 2024
Has the battle reached Thibaw town in Northern Shan, Mandalay, and Pyin Oo Lwin as the next targets?
On August 9 and 10, fighting spread to Thibaw, another town along the Mandalay-Lashio-Muse Union Highway in Northern Shan State. Thibaw is located between Lashio and Kyaukme, near the Duthawadi River. It is also a historical town where Shan saophas (rulers) once lived. The second phase of the “Operation 1027” began when the TNLA armed group first attacked and seized Kyaukme and Naung Cho towns along the Union Highway. More than a month later, MNDAA took control of Lashio, and a week later, the battle reached Thibaw.
According to recent reports, the TNLA is currently attacking Thibaw. After the junta’s Eastern Central Military Command, based in Lashio, was lost about a week ago, TNLA forces began attacking the junta’s battalions stationed in Thibaw.
Thibaw is one of the few remaining towns along the Union Highway in Northern Shan State that the Northern Alliance forces, including TNLA, have yet to seize. Although the TNLA previously captured the 105-mile trade camp near Muse during the initial phase of “Operation 1027,” the group has not yet attacked Muse town itself, which borders China’s Jiuguan town. This is reportedly due to the Northern Alliance receiving information from China indicating that China does not want fighting or town seizures in this area.
TNLA forces have now started attacking Thibaw, which is not a border town. Recent reports indicate that fighting is occurring near the Thibaw prison, and there are claims that the prison has been opened.
Just a week ago, during the Lashio battle, Lashio prison was opened, resulting in the release of over 2,800 prisoners, and around 100 people were killed due to artillery or rocket strikes on the prison.
In recent battles along the Union Highway in Northern Shan State, the junta has been facing losses, retreats, and casualties, with little prospect of retaking lost territories or military bases. Instead, the priority seems to be defending the remaining territories in Northern Shan to avoid further losses.
While towns like Tangyan and Mongyai near Lashio may become the next battlegrounds, the presence of Wa armed forces, who are currently acting as a buffer, may impede further attacks on these towns. The situation remains unclear as no one knows what discussions have occurred between the Wa forces, the junta, and the Northern Alliance. The Wa forces have officially stated that they will not engage in any armed conflict, yet there is speculation that the MNDAA would not have been able to succeed in “Operation 1027” without Wa support.
As the battle for Thibaw begins, there are reports that Mandalay and Pyin Oo Lwin, on the southeastern end of the Mandalay-Lashio-Muse road, might become targets of the MDY-PDF (Mandalay Region People’s Defense Force), a group not part of the Northern Alliance. If an attack on Pyin Oo Lwin occurs, it will likely involve the TNLA, which has already taken control of Naung Cho and Mogok. It is too early to speculate on which ethnic armed groups might join forces with the MDY-PDF to attack Mandalay, 40 miles away from Pyin Oo Lwin.
There have also been movements of the MDY-PDF and TNLA in areas like Ban Bway Kone and Wetwun near Pyin Oo Lwin. Recently, reports emerged of civilians and military families from Pyin Oo Lwin evacuating to Mandalay, Naypyidaw, and Yangon by car.
Pyin Oo Lwin is home to military institutions such as the Military Academy, the Military Engineering Academy, and several battalions. While the junta is expected to defend Pyin Oo Lwin as much as possible, given the multiple fronts it is currently fighting on, there are doubts about its ability to effectively defend the town.