Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 23
(Moemaka) August 24, 2024
Criticism over the conclusion that the military council cannot be toppled; Some ethnic groups are facing travel restrictions
The National Unity and Peace Coordination Committee, formed by the military council, and the working committee of various political party alliances met for two days on the 21st and 22nd of this month. In an interview with Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party, conducted by freelance journalist Thet Htwe Naing, he mentioned that the military council cannot be toppled, and the only way out is through elections and not through armed conflict. This statement has drawn criticism on social media.
Dr. Aye Maung clarified that the meeting between the political party alliances and the Peace Coordination Committee was a routine bi-monthly meeting and not directly related to the current situation. The statement that the military council cannot be toppled has sparked discussions on social media, with some interpreting it as a significant conclusion. There are signs that the military council is preparing to defend Mandalay, and there has been no offensive from the military on the northern Shan front so far. The conclusion that the military council is on the verge of collapse seems incorrect, and the claim that soldiers can collect 60,000 new recruits in a year under the military recruitment law supports this view. Dr. Aye Maung highlighted the consequences of the war, stating that the public is increasingly disillusioned with the war and does not support it.
Whether or not the public supports the war is a contentious issue, with many people suffering from the loss of family members, homes, and possessions due to the conflict. People are being forced to flee their homes and live in hardship, leading to the general conclusion that the public does not want war. However, under the current circumstances, it is difficult for any independent organization to freely gauge public opinion, making it challenging to verify the accuracy of such conclusions. The narratives of the warring factions often dominate the media, making it difficult to ascertain the true sentiments of the people.
Instead of focusing on whether the military council will fall or not, it may be more realistic to assess the extent of losses and which regions and towns may be further lost. The general population is worried about the potential spread of conflict to other regions, with those who can afford it temporarily relocating to major cities or neighboring countries. However, ordinary people find it difficult to leave their towns and villages for months on end, with the majority being from this socioeconomic class. Some ethnic armed groups have succeeded in seizing territories that they never controlled during the 70-plus years of civil war. These groups are now focused on maintaining military control and governance over these areas. There are also concerns about potential conflicts or disputes between ethnic groups over these territories.
Another issue today is that some ethnic groups living in conflict zones are facing travel restrictions within the country. Reports indicate that some transport companies have decided not to sell tickets to people from ethnic groups such as the Rakhine, Kokang, Palaung, and Wa. At military checkpoints, individuals from these regions are subject to delays and scrutiny, leading to transport companies’ decisions not to sell tickets to them. The military council has imposed travel restrictions on Rakhine people since the intense fighting began late last year, limiting their movement within Rakhine State and between other states and regions. Similar restrictions have recently been imposed on the Kokang, Wa, and Palaung ethnic groups, leading to transport companies’ decisions not to sell tickets to them.
The military council has been known for its discriminatory practices, imposing restrictions, making arrests out of suspicion, and demanding bribes before allowing people to travel. Recently, these new restrictions have been specifically applied to the Kokang, Wa, and Palaung ethnic groups.