Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 21 Scene
(MoeMaKa) August 22, 2024
Concern for a Fragmented Future Myanmar
There is growing concern about the possibility of Myanmar fragmenting into smaller, disjointed parts. Although international governments and powerful neighboring countries rarely voice such concerns publicly, they do consider this possibility from a perspective of “realpolitik.” They evaluate the potential impact on regional stability and how it might affect neighboring countries, not so much out of a desire to see it happen, but as a likely outcome.
If the central military power, which currently holds the country together, were to collapse or be defeated, how would the various ethnic armed groups and the majority-Bamar armed groups negotiate and move the country forward? This question is considered by these nations from a practical political standpoint, often referred to as “realpolitik,” considering factors like regional impact and the potential repercussions on neighboring countries.
Since Myanmar gained independence, there have been decades of armed resistance from two communist parties, along with ethnic groups seeking self-determination and autonomy. After the military coup in 1962, this resistance grew stronger, with the military establishing a one-party system and suppressing not only political movements but also ethnic cultural and linguistic preservation efforts. This led to the proliferation of armed groups.
Over the past seven decades, the Burmese military has fought against various armed groups, including the communist insurgents and ethnic armed groups. During the 1970s, it also faced armed resistance from the Patriotic Party led by U Nu. The military, as the central power, has clashed with groups seeking a federal system and with communists and socialists aiming to build their own systems.
Following the 2021 military coup, the political and military landscape shifted once again. The refusal to recognize the 2020 election results, the coup, and the brutal suppression of public protests led to a resurgence of armed resistance, echoing the internal conflict of the late 1940s to early 1950s, effectively creating a second civil war.
At this juncture, international governments and Western-based research organizations are considering the possibility of what might happen if the central military power were to disappear. They are examining whether there is unity and a common goal among the various armed groups fighting against the military, and whether there is an organization ready to step in and fill the void if the military collapses. This is being considered as a potential scenario for Myanmar’s near future.
From a “realpolitik” perspective, they see Myanmar as a fragile entity that could easily fragment. Before it breaks apart, they are considering ways to transition it from one state to another. Powerful countries may wish to influence this change through such a pathway. In diplomatic circles, this desire to see Myanmar transition in such a manner can be observed. However, some armed groups and political organizations within Myanmar are focused solely on completely removing the military and achieving total victory, leading to differing viewpoints between them and some international governments.
Since the beginning of this year, ethnic armed groups in northern Shan State have taken control of territories and towns from the military council and have started implementing their own administrative measures. As they gain control over these territories, there is growing concern among international organizations and some governments about potential conflicts between the ethnic armed groups over territory and authority.
At this point, there is a belief that ethnic armed groups should begin discussions and come to an understanding regarding territorial control and governance. There is also a sentiment that there should be thoughtful discussions between the ethnic armed groups and the political organizations aspiring to form a federal union. The time has come to start envisioning the shape of the future state and to consider the structure of a central government or a united state that they will collectively establish.