Myanmar Spring Chronicle – September 03 Scenes
Published by MoeMaKa on September 04, 2023
Distinguishing Myanmar’s Civil War from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
In the wake of the military coup in Myanmar in 2021, the country underwent a seismic shift in power dynamics. The State Administrative Council (SAC), established under a state of emergency, took control, triggering widespread protests and demonstrations against the military regime. Within a few months, what had started as a protest movement evolved into an armed resistance, aiming to dismantle the military dictatorship. Consequently, Myanmar transitioned from a state of internal conflict to a nation marked by daily armed confrontations, assassinations, arrests, extrajudicial killings, executions, arbitrary detentions, and punishments spanning the entire country.
While Myanmar’s civil war differs from the Ukraine-Russia conflict in Europe, characterized by missile strikes, long-range artillery, and tank warfare, it is no less devastating. Armed conflicts occur almost daily across Myanmar, displacing millions of people from their homes and villages. These displacements can be temporary, lasting for months or years, as citizens seek refuge from the ongoing conflict. Unlike the Ukraine-Russia war, which receives international military support, weapons, fighter jets, and bombs, Myanmar’s civil war has not witnessed casualties in the tens of thousands. However, its impact is deeply felt, with civilians enduring the hardships of disrupted food supplies, exorbitant food prices, loss of livelihoods, dependency on aid, disrupted education for children, destruction of schools, and a scarcity of educators.
In the context of Western Europe, the Ukraine-Russia war is perceived as a direct threat from Russia. Ukraine, invaded by Russia, stands as a frontline defender on behalf of Eastern and Western European nations, receiving substantial aid and support to combat the threat of Russian aggression. Consequently, this conflict incurs considerable damage and casualties. On the other hand, Myanmar’s civil war revolves around the military’s decades-long domination of the political landscape and the ethnic armed forces’ fight for self-determination using automatic rifles and grenade launchers. While the conflict profoundly affects the lives of Myanmar’s people, it does not parallel the Ukraine-Russia war in Europe.
Regrettably, the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war has shifted global attention away from Myanmar’s political and armed conflicts following the military coup. Western nations, preoccupied with preventing a repeat of Russian aggression in Europe, have viewed Myanmar’s post-coup conflicts as human rights violations, a civil war, or, in the worst-case scenario, an internal armed struggle that could endure for decades. Beyond moral and humanitarian assistance, other forms of encouragement and support have dwindled.
As Western nations grapple with the Ukraine-Russia war, regional interest in resolving Myanmar’s issues has been primarily limited to neighboring countries such as Thailand, China, India, and Bangladesh, which has accepted approximately one million refugees. China leverages its influence over ethnic armed groups in Myanmar’s border regions to stabilize the situation, emphasizing stability over democratic ideals. Thailand and India are primarily concerned with refugee acceptance and the risk of border skirmishes impacting their security, displaying limited interest in Myanmar’s democratic prospects. These nations appear more inclined towards pragmatic politics rather than democratic, federal, or human rights standards, engaging with the Military Council through diplomacy. In Bangladesh, hosting Rohingya refugees for six years has complicated their return journey. Diminished food and medical supplies, coupled with refugee camps serving as recruiting grounds for criminal gangs and armed groups, pose challenges. Bangladesh is prepared to facilitate repatriation for refugees desiring to return, irrespective of Myanmar’s internal developments.
These contextual factors shape the considerations for revolutionary forces. It is imperative for these forces to assess neighboring and ASEAN countries’ interactions with the Military Council, their engagement with the revolutionaries, and how they can contribute to the cause. The path forward must be carefully deliberated in light of these complex dynamics.