Myanmar Spring Chronicle – July 22 Scenes
MoeMaKa, July 23, 2023
The Military Council’s announcement of issuing 20000 kyat banknotes while the NUG SDB establishment; 14 people killed in Sone Chaung Village, Yinmarbin Township after being raided
The Central Bank of the Military Council government has announced that it will start issuing 20,000 kyat banknotes on July 31. In recent years, what was said as a rumor when inflation occurred has now become a reality. What is the purpose of issuing 20,000 kyat banknotes? It can be said that the way to solve the financial needs of the military council government is by printing banknotes. Although they may give the excuse that the banknotes were issued after the Maravijaya Buddha statue was built by the chairman of the military council, in fact, the issuance of 20,000 kyat banknotes, which is twice the current maximum value of 1,000 kyat notes, will quickly add another measure to the amount of kyats in circulation. It can be said that the issue of 20,000 kyat notes will have an effect that will immediately increase inflationary concerns, even though it is not yet known how much additional money will come in.
Even an ordinary civilian who is not an expert in economics can understand that the government wants to print a small number of banknotes and spend more money by issuing a banknote that is 2 times more valuable than the highest valued ten thousand kyat banknote. The 20,000 kyat market may begin to affect exchange rates, gold prices, house prices, and car prices, and the devaluation of the Myanmar kyat in exchange for foreign currency can have a rapid impact on daily life. There may be an impact on the price of fuel oil, the price of edible oil, and consumer goods imported from abroad, as well as on manual laborers and factory workers, who will feel the effects of shrinking incomes soon while an increase in wages is uncertain.
During the previous junta regime that ruled from 1988 to 2010, the fiscal deficit was easily solved by printing paper money, which helped to control inflation to some extent after 2011. After the military coup in 2021, the military council restricted money from the state bank and private banks it controlled. The crisis in which difficulties in money withdrawal from banks and the coup regime’s Central Bank’s attempts to control foreign currency by issuing one order after another have had a big impact not only on international NGOs and civil society organizations working on humanitarian and development work, but also on export and import businesses. In a few months, the whole country experienced a serious decline in the value of the kyat. It remains to be seen how much the issuance of 20,000 kyat banknotes will further decrease the value of the kyat currency. The people who will suffer the most are those who work day to day, and will continue to suffer the consequences of inflation, in addition to political instability and armed conflict.
Another thing to think about is that parallel to the financial system within the banking system operated by the Myanmar Military Council, interest in NUG’s digital currency is rising in the financial market, which operates in exchange for Myanmar kyats and foreign currencies, from both domestic and foreign Myanmar. There is also a question as to whether the 20,000-ton banknotes of the beginning were brought into the market in response to this. In these days, NUG’s Ministry of Finance has started operating the Spring Development Bank (SDB), so many Myanmar people have started moving to transfer their savings to SDB. If Myanmar’s currency is inflated, the people will have to suffer the loss that the value of the current accumulated kyat has decreased more than yesterday, no matter which bank they switch to.
Another piece of news for today is that on the morning of July 21, the military council troops raided Sone Chaung Village in Yinmarbin Township and killed not only the village defense PDF forces but also ordinary civilians after they were tortured and interrogated. Initial reports stated that a total of 12 villagers were killed, but according to later reports, 14 men, including 5 civilians and members of PDF forces and village defense forces, were killed. Among them, 4 high school-age minors were reportedly included. The military council often kills minors on suspicion of participating in the armed resistance.
While the military council is trying to dominate Sagaing Region which is a vast area based on the terrain, the PaKaFa groups under the NUG, PDF groups that are not under NUG, and village defense forces formed for the purpose of protecting each village are emerging, and the military council is getting far more and more to control Sagaing. On the other hand, various armed groups are emerging with the same aim of fighting against the military council, but it is true that there are challenges in terms of how to obtain enough weapons and ammunition, to have experience in fighting and defending, and to raise the funds needed to support the armed forces.
In order to achieve the success of Sagaing’s armed resistance and victory over military council troops, political organization, consolidation, and cooperation of the armed forces are important, and the question of who will sponsor and implement these things has become an important one.