MoeMaKa June 27 2022
Lacking Military Strategies
PDFs are escalating attacks in Central Divisions against Myanmar Military. They have guerrilla warfare, ambushing, road-side-bombing and trapping-home-made-bombs and interception attacks. They are now applying check-points on roads connecting one city to another and one township to another. The junta soldiers couldn’t travel freely along those roads for a couple of months such as Mandalay-MyitKyiNar road which is called as the road of strategy connecting Sagaing Division and Kachin State.
It is not known which organization understands and plans to manage and give order on theses situations. Local PDF & NUG’s PDF are seemed to be doing collectivedly rather than in one command strategically. People cannot predict what comes next. As for the military council, they already have so many years of experience in civil war so they may understand the current situation. It is sure that they are and will try to control strategically the roads and waterway along the Ayeyarwaddy River connecting northern and central regions and the waterway along the Chindwin River connecting northwest and central regions. Although PDFs can threaten and disturb the junta on those routes currently, it is not yet in upper hand completely and blocked the junta.
There is historical evidence that during the Vietnam war, Ho Chi Minh’s Revolutionary Forces, based in North Vietnam, built a supply route strategically called “Ho Chi Minh road” through the jungles along the small and long map of the country. It was able to threaten and support battles in South Vietnam -backed by the US government.
Although Myanmar does not have a narrow and long geography appearance like Vietnam, there are strategically important roads like connecting road from Magway, connecting road and waterway from Mandalay and Monywa, and roads from Sagaing to connect Kachin State, upper part of Sagaing Division and Chin state. Anti-dictator armed groups including PDF need to consider taking control strategically over such routes as a next step when they are or want to grow stronger advantage.
It needs to evaluate the current situation honestly whether it is in a controlled-state or in a state that can only disturb the junta or in a state of guerrilla attacks only.
Military routes are already being under attack in various regions of Myanmar and there have EROs ( Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations) which have already been fighting for decades and now addition to them come recently local PDFs fighting Myanmar Military. EROs are aiming for rather than conquering the whole country, they aim for expansion of their controlled territories and protecting their local people more efficiently. Therefore they may have less interest in forming an alliance and then fight simultaneously at target date and time. I think there has been no collaborated operation till now between the newly formed armed groups (PDF) and the already formed ethnic armed groups (EARO) in Sagaing Division, upper part of Magway Division, Kayah (Karenni) State, Karen State and Tanintharyi Division. In the territories of KNU (Karen National Union) and Kayah State, there are some battles in combined forces. In general, there have been no collaborated attacks fighting simultaneously with pre-appointed time in their strategy.
I think it is essential to have such a strategic collaboration for a change in military operation to achieve the next step.