Myanmar Spring Chronicle – Scenes from April 2
(MoeMaKa), April 3, 2026
Global Oil and Natural Gas Shortages and Myanmar
From a geographical perspective, Iran—one of the Gulf countries in what Western Asia, Western Europe, and the Americas refer to as the Middle East—has been under attack by Israel and the United States. Now, more than a month into the conflict, global oil prices and the prices of petroleum-related products have surged, and long queues to purchase fuel have become common in many countries.
A large share of exports of petroleum, natural gas, and related products—such as plastics, fertilizers, fuel, and chemical industrial raw materials—pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and Oman. Due to the current blockade of this strait, the countries most affected are in East Asia. Nations heavily dependent on oil and natural gas from the Gulf region include wealthy countries like China, Japan, and South Korea, as well as many ASEAN countries and those in South Asia.
While wealthier East Asian countries can rely to some extent on their reserves, developing and emerging countries in Southeast Asia and some South Asian nations are facing severe impacts on their domestic economies.
It remains uncertain how long the war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran will continue. However, after more than a month, Myanmar is already experiencing serious consequences, with fuel shortages and soaring prices significantly affecting people’s daily socio-economic lives.
Long queues for fuel, the hardships associated with them, and even incidents of people fainting or dying from extreme heat while waiting in line have become almost daily occurrences across the country.
The shortage of petroleum and natural gas products is also having major impacts on the agricultural sector. It is still unclear how long the situation will persist or how much worse it may become.
Agriculture, a key sector of Myanmar’s economy, is already suffering. Due to the civil war, there are frequent reports of areas where farming and harvesting cannot be carried out. Currently, even where crops have been grown, farmers face difficulties obtaining fuel for harvesting machinery, along with high fuel costs—leading to mounting losses. This situation is also likely to negatively affect future planting seasons.
A short video clip circulated on social media last week showed a farmer angrily kicking sacks of harvested paddy—an expression of frustration after suffering losses during cultivation. This reflects the reality faced by farmers today. Recently, there have also been posts from onion farmers in central Myanmar who cultivate on fertile riverbank soils, stating that due to continuous losses, they plan to abandon planting next season. As a consequence of the ongoing civil war, challenges such as taxation along transport routes, lack of security, and disruptions in border trade have prevented onion farmers from making profits, forcing them to endure repeated losses.
It is difficult to predict how much rice and other major crop production will decline in the coming agricultural seasons. For Myanmar’s agricultural sector—already weakened by war—this could become another major blow. Organizations like the UN World Food Programme have issued warnings and projections. However, in a country engulfed in conflict, armed groups and the military junta prioritize military advantage over economic stability and food security.
Even before this oil and gas crisis, the people of Myanmar were already facing extremely high commodity prices. In regions like Rakhine State, where transportation of food, fuel, and essential goods is heavily restricted, soaring prices have pushed local populations into severe poverty. Communities are now experiencing levels of hardship unprecedented in their lifetimes.
The combined effects of war, war-related taxation, restrictions aimed at cutting off supplies to opposing territories, and now the global oil and gas crisis have created a situation where survival itself is becoming a struggle. At present, it is a bleak outlook—one with no clear path forward and little hope in sight.
Write to Maung May