Myanmar Spring Chronicle – Scenes from March 13
(MoeMaKa), March 14, 2026
Myanmar in Civil War Will Also Suffer the Impact of the Middle East War
Following the attack on Iran on February 28, justified by claims that Iran and the armed groups it supports were threatening the Middle East, Israel, and the United States, global oil prices and oil supply availability have been severely affected. As a result, the prices of all petroleum-based products, including oil and natural gas liquids, have risen. Countries around the world are now trying to mitigate the impact by adopting fuel-saving measures and preventing situations where fuel shortages could occur.
In Myanmar as well, starting March 7, regulations were imposed on fuel-powered vehicles. Except for vehicles used for business operations, healthcare, passenger transport, and cargo transport, private vehicles must now operate on alternating days based on license plate numbers: even-numbered vehicles on even-numbered days and odd-numbered vehicles on odd-numbered days.
For Myanmar, which is already experiencing a civil war, fuel prices have long varied widely depending on location across the country. In some areas, armed groups have already restricted the transportation of fuel. Therefore, the country is likely to feel an additional layer of hardship due to the global rise in fuel prices and the difficulties in obtaining supplies.
At present, no one can predict how long the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran in the Middle East will last. Countries around the world have different levels of fuel reserves—some have 30 days, some 60 days, and others 90 days. In Myanmar’s case, the total fuel currently being purchased along with what is stored domestically is believed to be less than two months of supply, unlike some other countries. Therefore, it would not be wrong to say that Myanmar’s situation is quite difficult.
If oil cannot be transported from the Middle East, another possible option would be Russia. However, although relations between Russia and Myanmar’s military regime are relatively good, it remains uncertain whether transportation over such long distances would be feasible.
Even the current measure of allowing private fuel-powered vehicles to operate only on alternating days has already begun to affect the country’s economic and social activities to some extent. While it is true that any country that does not produce oil must reduce fuel consumption, it is also important that measures to conserve fuel are carried out with broad public participation in ways that do not severely harm the economy.
In Thailand, measures include limiting fuel sales hours, raising the temperature settings of air conditioners to reduce energy consumption, using elevators only when necessary, and allowing some government offices to work from home. Neighboring countries such as Laos have also announced similar fuel-saving measures.
In Myanmar, however, cooperation between the military junta currently governing the country and the public is at a very low level. As a result, the regime’s efforts are likely to achieve limited success.
Because of the ongoing civil war, the country’s foreign currency reserves are being prioritized for military expenditures such as weapons, ammunition, and aviation fuel. Even before the current Middle East conflict, imports of consumer goods, medicines, and fuel were already being reduced.
Now, the ripple effects of the Iran war will almost certainly further worsen Myanmar’s already weakened economy caused by the civil war.
In regions such as interior areas of Rakhine State, Kachin State, parts of Chin State, and the Naga Self-Administered Zone in upper Sagaing Region, fuel prices have already been two to four times higher than in cities like Yangon and Mandalay due to restrictions, blockades, and various taxes.
In some parts of Myanmar, farmers have already been forced to plow fields with cattle and manual labor because fuel for agricultural machinery is unavailable. In addition, the cost of fuel for ambulances transporting patients to emergency medical facilities can reach hundreds of thousands of kyats, sometimes even into the millions, making it unaffordable for many families. As a result, numerous people have already lost their lives because they could not afford transportation for medical treatment.
Even before the current global fuel crisis, fuel had already been treated as a strategic commodity, with restrictions and blockades imposed by the military junta and sometimes by neighboring countries.
In recent days, the National Unity Government (NUG) also announced that fuel transportation to Chin and Rakhine States through areas under its control would only be permitted after inspection. Some critics have questioned whether the NUG itself is beginning to use fuel as a weapon of war. While it is unclear whether fuel is being transported through NUG-controlled areas to supply enemy military bases, such measures could further complicate the situation at a time when fuel prices are already high.
Under restrictive conditions, bribery and illegal trade may emerge in order to transport and sell fuel. This could drive prices even higher and place an additional burden on civilians who are already struggling because of the war—creating a situation where hardship compounds upon hardship.
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If you want, I can also help you produce a shorter, polished English version suitable for publication or social media, since this reads like part of your Myanmar Spring Chronicle–style analysis.
Write to Maung May