Myanmar Spring Chronicle – Scenes from March 19
(MoeMaKa), March 20, 2026
Countries That Will Be Hit by the Fallout of the Middle East War
A war launched without sufficient justification—one in which Israel, aiming to expand its vision of a “Greater Israel” in the Middle East, seeks to weaken or break Iran (seen as an obstacle to that goal), while also drawing in the world’s most powerful country in terms of military and financial strength—has already begun to impact the socio-economic conditions of many countries around the globe.
For countries like Myanmar, already suffering from civil war, the effects of the Middle East conflict are becoming more pronounced day by day. Even in countries without internal conflict, such as Thailand—where an estimated 3 to 6 million Myanmar migrant workers live and work—signs of fuel shortages are emerging in some areas. In India’s capital, New Delhi, shortages of household cooking gas have led to long queues, panic buying, and even restaurant closures due to lack of supply, as reported in the news.
In a country like Myanmar, where armed conflict is ongoing, fuel has already been sold at excessively high prices in conflict zones. With the added impact of the Middle East war, there are growing concerns about worsening consequences. In regions such as Rakhine State, parts of Chin and Kachin States, upper Sagaing Region, and northern Shan State, fuel prices are already 50% to 100–150% higher than in cities like Yangon and Mandalay, where there are fewer blockades and checkpoint fees. High fuel prices affect not only livelihoods such as fishing, agriculture, and trade, but also essential sectors like healthcare and education.
As healthcare facilities have become scarce due to conflict, patients with life-threatening conditions often need to travel to major cities for treatment. Transportation costs have skyrocketed—sometimes reaching hundreds of thousands to millions of kyats. For example, hiring an ambulance from Monywa to Yangon or from Kalay to Yangon can cost tens of millions of kyats just for fuel.
Within just three weeks of the Middle East war, fuel prices in Myanmar have risen by over 25% to 30%. Although the military authorities had claimed in early March that fuel reserves would last for about 40 days, official prices were increased just 20 days after the conflict began. Petrol, previously around 3,000 kyats per liter, has risen to about 3,800 kyats, while diesel has increased from around 3,500 kyats to over 4,800 kyats.
While these prices apply in Yangon and Mandalay, regions like Rakhine, Kachin, and Chin—where transportation is more difficult and subject to restrictions—face fuel prices two to four or even five times higher. There is a growing urgency to prepare in advance before reaching a situation where fuel shortages bring daily life to a halt.
In recent years, Sri Lanka experienced a total fuel shortage due to a lack of foreign reserves, leading to the collapse of its government. Although that crisis was country-specific, the current fuel shortage is affecting nearly the entire East Asian region. Except for oil-producing countries or wealthy nations with sufficient reserves to last several months, most countries are now feeling the impact.
While the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is a key factor, within just three weeks, attacks on oil and gas production facilities and storage infrastructure in Iran and Gulf countries have further worsened the situation. Even if maritime passage resumes, global oil and gas export capacity will remain disrupted, ensuring continued price increases.
Even politically stable countries are struggling with shortages of oil and natural gas. For a country like Myanmar—already on the brink due to civil war, compounded by restrictions on goods transportation and burdensome, often arbitrary taxation—the population is likely to face even greater hardship in the days ahead.