Myanmar Spring Chronicle – January 20 Scene*
January 21, 2026
Myanmar nationals in Thailand facing growing troubles
Because of Myanmar’s economic crisis, the conscription law, and the risk of arrest and punishment for opposing the coup regime politically, the number of people fleeing to Thailand has been rising year by year. Some Thai organizations estimate that there may now be roughly 4 to 6 million Myanmar nationals in Thailand.
Long before the latest coup, since the period after the 1988 military takeover, hundreds of thousands—eventually millions—of people from Myanmar have gone to Thailand for work and economic opportunities. After the second coup about five years ago, the numbers surged sharply. Although the outflow may have decreased somewhat after 2011 when some job opportunities opened up inside Myanmar, today Thailand has again become the easiest country to enter for those escaping unemployment and the danger of being forcibly recruited into the military.
Recently, people have been hearing about a steady stream of incidents: conflicts among Myanmar nationals in Thailand, disputes between Myanmar and Thai locals, involvement in criminal cases, and even robberies and killings among Myanmar people themselves.
The first widely discussed incident occurred in Samut Prakan (within the Bangkok metropolitan area), where the owner and some staff of a Myanmar restaurant allegedly assaulted a Thai motorcycle delivery rider after an argument. Afterward, some Thai ultranationalists became involved and went to the restaurant looking for those who attacked the rider. A few hours—and then a few days—later, the assailants reportedly turned themselves in at a Thai police station, and police were able to resolve the issue.
A few days later, on January 13, another report emerged from Chonburi province near Bangkok: around 100 Myanmar nationals were involved in a group clash. Around the same period, another incident occurred in Satun in southern Thailand, where a Myanmar national under the influence of drugs used a machete-like weapon to smash the windows of about 20 parked cars.
After these reports spread, migrant worker advocates and organizations in Thailand issued warnings urging Myanmar nationals to be careful and to avoid trouble.
Then, on January 20, news emerged from Mae Sot that Thai police were questioning Myanmar nationals suspected of arranging a weapons deal, when one Myanmar man allegedly involved in the arms trade shot at police and fled. Mae Sot borders Myanmar’s Karen State, where armed conflict continues, and is known as a busy hub for trade as well as legal and illegal activities such as arms smuggling, human trafficking, migrant smuggling, and narcotics.
Reports said Mae Sot police tightened surveillance in some neighborhoods while searching for the suspect who fired at officers.
On the same day, another incident reportedly occurred: a Myanmar national allegedly lured and robbed—and then killed—an LGBT person known among Myanmar TikTok users as “Ayeyarwady Ma.”
With crimes, suspected arms smuggling, clashes with Thai citizens, and drug-related vandalism making headlines, many Myanmar nationals—especially those living without legal documentation—are worried that inspections and arrests could increase.
Some people suspect that these sudden increases in conflict and crime may involve behind-the-scenes influence linked to a Myanmar pro-military monk who calls himself “Pauk Ko Taw.” In recent months, he reportedly visited Thailand and met a figure known as an extreme Thai nationalist (photos circulated on social media). Some suspect that meetings between Myanmar ultranationalists and Thai extremist groups may be intended to pressure Myanmar migrant workers abroad and Myanmar communities opposing the coup.
If we broadly divide Myanmar nationals in Thailand into groups, the largest group is migrant workers who live frugally, work wherever opportunities exist, and send money back to families in Myanmar. A second large group may be people with some financial means who are temporarily sheltering in Thailand to escape the collapse of rule of law after the coup. A third group includes political opponents of the coup, NGO/CSO workers, activists, and those involved in activities supporting the armed resistance inside Myanmar. There is also a notable portion of youth and families who fled due to the conscription law announced in early 2023. In addition, there may be some people in Thailand who support the military—whether for official duties or personal reasons.
Because many Myanmar people in Thailand oppose or do not support the military, it can be assumed the coup regime would welcome a situation where Myanmar communities in Thailand feel pressured and must live extremely cautiously. Even if Thailand cannot fully arrest and deport all anti-junta figures, Thai authorities do arrest undocumented migrants; after punishment, some are sent back to Myanmar—where military-age youths may then be absorbed into conscription.
Among Myanmar’s five neighboring countries, Thailand is the place where the largest number of Myanmar nationals temporarily take refuge and work. Whether out of humanitarian concerns or for economic benefit, Thailand’s acceptance functions as an “exit route” for Myanmar people. However, frequent reports of crime, deaths from accidents during irregular border crossings, and cases where detainees sent back to Myanmar end up forced into military service show how the hardships facing Myanmar people keep multiplying, one after another.