Myanmar Spring Chronicle – December 3 Panorama
(MoeMaKa) December 4, 2025
Threats from the Military-backed USDP and Military Leaders
In recent days, the military, which seized power and is responsible for holding the upcoming election in late this month and early next year, has openly called on people to vote for candidates who can “cooperate in harmony with the military.”
At the same time, retired generals who lead the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) have also been speaking in the campaign. USDP chairman ex-General Khin Yi said at a recent campaign event that any government that does not cooperate with the military will collapse the very next day after it comes to power.
For someone who currently holds both the position of de facto head of state (acting president) and commander-in-chief, to make such remarks about how people should vote in the upcoming election is a direct violation of a basic principle of elections: that the body responsible for holding the election must not interfere in or influence the election.
What he said is clearly a statement that shatters any notion of a free and fair election.
These remarks were made by coup leader Min Aung Hlaing on November 1, at the graduation ceremony of Pyin Oo Lwin’s Zee Pin Gyi Fire Services Training School. At that event, he also said that:
“Because the military is indispensable in preventing the country from collapsing when there is instability, people should vote for representatives who have a ‘defence mindset’.”
What does “representatives with a defence mindset” really mean?
In practice, it refers to:
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Retired officers contesting the election
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Former military servicemen running as candidates
and is essentially a call for people to vote for candidates from the USDP, the party made up largely of retired military officers and ex-servicemen.
The 2025/26 election is an election that the military and USDP have long been preparing for, with the intention of winning by design. They:
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Created obstacles in the party registration process to prevent potential rivals from registering
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Deregistered some parties on the pretext that they did not have enough members
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Scrutinized candidate lists and disqualified candidates saying they did not meet the criteria
All of this has already provided clear evidence that this election will be neither free, nor impartial, nor fair.
Now, during the campaign period, the USDP and military leaders are openly telling people to vote for the military’s party and other parties composed of ex-military officers. Compared with the 2010 election held by the previous junta (the SPDC), where they tried to ensure victory for the USDP, the current campaign rhetoric is even more blatantly coercive and ugly.
In 2010, to secure enough seats for the USDP to form a government, the regime resorted to large-scale election fraud, including blatant manipulation of advance voting. They succeeded in forming a government that way.
For the upcoming election, we do not yet know exactly what form the cheating will take, but just by examining:
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The election law
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The candidate disqualifications by the election commission
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The campaign period rhetoric
we can already see abundant evidence of bias, unfairness, and lack of freedom.
Ethnic Armed Organizations’ and NUG’s Positions on the Sham Election
With respect to this sham election, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) have taken a variety of policy positions and responses.
For example, groups like the KNU (Karen National Union) have declared that:
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No election will be allowed in areas under their control
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Those who assist in election-related activities will face punishment and accountability
The National Unity Government (NUG) also stated earlier this year that it would arrest and prosecute, in accordance with its laws, those who collaborate and participate in the junta’s election.
However, in Karenni State, Kachin State, and northern Shan State, some ethnic armed groups have not issued any clear public declarations regarding the election.
On one side, EAOs and the NUG are telling the people not to participate in any election-related activities. On the other side, the coup regime is pressuring people to check voter lists and to go and vote.
Thus, the election is generating:
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Threats and coercion against the public
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A sense of fear and pressure around participation
At the same time, there are also political parties which see the election path as:
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A possible opportunity to move away from the current militarized order
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A way to reduce the military’s role and involvement
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One more option for changing the political landscape
Some politicians operating in the “above-ground” political arena are asking:
“If there is no election at all, by what mechanism will the military regime or military rule be transformed?”
For politicians who reject armed struggle and insist on trying only the political route, such thinking is not surprising.
But for forces that believe they will defeat military dictatorship by armed struggle, any politicians or parties that choose to participate in the election are seen as:
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Enemies to be listed and targeted
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People who are prolonging the life of military dictatorship
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Pillars propping up an oppressive system
What Will This Election Actually Bring?
This upcoming election could become:
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Either a lifeline and escape route for the military regime,
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Or a political event that deepens divisions among anti-dictatorship forces.
This is something that needs serious re-examination.
In addition, during the election period, it is critically important to prepare in advance:
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Military strategies
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Political strategies
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Diplomatic strategies
so that this period does not simply become an advantage for the junta, but is instead used wisely by anti-dictatorship forces.