Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 3 Overview
(MoeMaKa, November 4, 2025)
TNLA to Withdraw from Mogok on November 20 — the Situation in Mogok
Reports have emerged that the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) plans to withdraw from Mogok on November 20, under the terms of the ceasefire agreement reached with the military junta during the October 27–28 talks in Kunming, China. That agreement called for a ceasefire, a halt to junta airstrikes, and TNLA’s withdrawal from the towns of Momeik and Mogok, which it had captured during the second phase of Operation 1027.
Of the two towns, Mogok has drawn more attention than Momeik. Momeik lies within Shan State, while Mogok belongs to Mandalay Region, though both are geographically adjacent to northern Shan. Momeik is populated mostly by Shan and Palaung (Ta’ang) communities, while Mogok is home to Shan, Bamar, Lisu, Palaung, and Gurkha (Nepali) residents. Mogok is world-famous as Myanmar’s “ruby land,” and its gem wealth has long attracted people from other regions.
After independence, when the country’s administrative boundaries were redrawn, Mogok — though bordering northern Shan State — was placed under Mandalay Region, a decision often criticized as an intentional move to carve out a resource-rich area from Shan State and put it under central control.
During the second phase of Operation 1027, TNLA forces captured Mogok, and locals were seen enthusiastically welcoming them, according to media reports. Known for its ruby mining, beautiful lake, and scenic mountain surroundings, Mogok has always been viewed as one of the region’s more prosperous towns. Even during the 26-year period of socialist military rule under the Burmese Way to Socialism, when a state-controlled economy was enforced, Mogok’s residents still earned a relatively good living through small-scale, independent gem mining.
After the 2021 coup, as new resistance forces began forming across the country, local PDFs (People’s Defense Forces) emerged in Mogok as well, cooperating militarily with the TNLA.
During TNLA’s roughly one-year control of Mogok, however, there were growing concerns among locals about gem-mining regulations under TNLA rule. Reports appeared that the group had authorized new mining operations, even in areas like old golf courses where mining had been suspended for years. There were also criticisms earlier this year that TNLA troops had forcibly conscripted Gurkha youths into military service, sparking controversy and discontent.
Some observers believe that TNLA’s withdrawal decision reflects pragmatic considerations — military strain, political pressure, and financial or manpower shortages during a prolonged civil war. For TNLA, maintaining long-term control over towns outside its traditional Ta’ang areas was never going to be sustainable.
At the same time, many residents and supporters of the anti-junta movement feel disheartened. They had seen TNLA as part of the broader revolution and believed it would never act against the will of the people or retreat in ways that might benefit the junta.
Now, TNLA has reportedly agreed to withdraw from Mogok and Momeik after weighing multiple factors — military, political, logistical, and local security. What remains unclear is how the withdrawal will take place: whether the towns will be formally handed over to the junta or whether, as with Lashio, they will simply be vacated, leaving local resistance forces such as the Mogok Strategic Force (under the NUG’s Ministry of Defense) to take up defense.
In the earlier Lashio handover, the MNDAA ensured safe entry for junta troops before leaving. That process unfolded gradually over about three months (January to April 2024), with rumors circulating for weeks before confirmation came. In contrast, the Mogok–Momeik withdrawal appears to be scheduled much more quickly — within three to four weeks.
Locals who had welcomed TNLA’s arrival in 2023 now find it hard to accept that the situation could change so suddenly. While they had enjoyed relative freedom under TNLA administration, they also endured fear and destruction from junta airstrikes. Many now worry that TNLA’s departure will expose them again to raids, reprisals, and renewed suffering.
The Mogok Strategic Force (MSF) and MDY-PDF (Mandalay People’s Defense Force) have both issued statements inviting local resistance fighters and volunteers to join in defending the town, vowing not to surrender it. They have also urged residents to evacuate, though leaving has become increasingly expensive — with travel costs between 500,000 and 600,000 kyats per person, at a time of widespread shortages and soaring prices. Families fear losing not just their homes but all their remaining possessions if they flee.
As of now, Mogok’s fate after November 20 remains uncertain. In the next one or two weeks, the situation on the ground — whether TNLA truly withdraws, and who will control the town afterward — is expected to become clearer.