Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 16: Scene
(MoeMaKa, October 17, 2025)
The Third Town Lost by the TNLA in Northern Shan State Within Four Months
Counting from mid-July 2025, over the past four months the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has lost control of three towns it once held in northern Shan State. The first was Naungcho, surrendered in mid-July; the second, Kyaukme, on October 1; and most recently, on October 16, Hsipaw.
After the junta’s forces recaptured Naungcho along the Mandalay–Muse Union Highway, they continued advancing northward, taking Kyaukme two weeks ago and then pushing further along the same route to seize Hsipaw.
The military’s campaign reportedly took months — a month-long siege for Naungcho, then over two months to take Kyaukme. After capturing Kyaukme, they moved on to Hsipaw, a smaller but strategically located town on the main highway.
Unlike the Bhamo battle in Kachin State — where the KIA and junta have fought inside the city for nearly ten months — the fighting in Naungcho, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw didn’t involve heavy street battles. Instead, it unfolded mainly in defensible terrain between the towns, along the road corridors, following military strategic lines.
The TNLA mounted resistance but seemingly did not intend to pour all its manpower into holding these three towns. Instead, analysts believe the TNLA is focusing on protecting its heartland — around Namhsan, Namtu, and Mantong, as well as maintaining control of key border trade routes near Muse and the 105-Mile border gate.
Strategic and Political Background
Looking back to the start of Operation 1027 on October 27, 2023, the first six to nine months saw unprecedented cooperation among the Brotherhood Alliance — the TNLA, MNDAA, and AA — alongside thousands of resistance fighters from other allied groups.
During that period, they captured dozens of junta bases, regional commands, and operation centers, marking the height of military and political coordination among anti-junta forces.
But by mid-2025, that momentum waned. In the four months since, the TNLA has lost three key towns — a reversal that analysts attribute to multiple causes.
Some point to Chinese pressure, growing competition among allied forces over territory, taxation rights, and local resources, and tensions among ethnic factions — all of which weakened unity against the junta.
Disputes over resource extraction rights, military recruitment zones, and control of trade checkpoints also played roles.
The TNLA leadership has reportedly acknowledged internal criticisms and stated that it is reviewing these setbacks and learning lessons.
China’s Influence and the End of the Brotherhood’s Coordination
China’s policy toward Myanmar — especially its push to freeze Operation 1027 earlier this year — was a key turning point.
Another major factor was the fragmentation of the once-cohesive anti-junta coalition under the Brotherhood’s umbrella.
The MNDAA’s ceasefire with the junta, and the UWSA’s (United Wa State Army) withdrawal of logistical and financial support for 1027-related offensives, were major blows to coordination and morale.
In 2023–2024, all three Brotherhood groups had fought in sync. But now, as the junta regains the initiative and launches counteroffensives, each group is forced to defend separately, stretching manpower and logistics thin.
This shift is expected to have major consequences for the broader Spring Revolution and the effort to dismantle military rule.
What Comes Next
With Hsipaw now under junta control, observers are asking: Which town will be targeted next?
Given that the Mandalay–Muse Union Highway is critical both economically and militarily, it’s likely that the junta will prioritize securing the full route.
Possible next targets include Hseni (Theinni) and Kutkai, both along the same axis.
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Hseni is fully controlled by the MNDAA, which has signed a ceasefire with the junta.
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Kutkai is jointly held by the TNLA and MNDAA.
It remains to be seen whether the junta will risk attacking these areas — potentially violating its ceasefire with the MNDAA — or whether China will pressure the Kokang forces to yield territory instead.
Either way, the fall of these three towns marks a significant shift in momentum in northern Shan State — and a reminder that the fate of Myanmar’s war increasingly hinges not only on local resistance, but on regional geopolitics and Chinese influence.