Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 15: Scene
(MoeMaKa, October 16, 2025)
The 10th Anniversary of the NCA and Myanmar’s Future
From October 15 to 17, Myanmar’s military regime held grand ceremonies and discussions in Naypyitaw to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) — originally signed in 2015 between the government of President Thein Sein and eight ethnic armed organizations.
But ten years after the signing, the contrast could not be starker: over half of the country’s territory is now engulfed in civil war. Many new armed groups have emerged since 2015 — and small forces that once numbered only in the thousands have grown into armies tens of thousands strong.
War and Humanitarian Crisis
Nationwide, it’s estimated that between 3 and 4 million people have been displaced from their homes. Tens of thousands of civilians have been killed, and countless more have disappeared after arrests, torture, or summary executions — often accused of being informants or collaborators.
Airstrikes, artillery bombardments, and arson attacks have destroyed tens of thousands — possibly hundreds of thousands — of homes and villages. Livelihoods have collapsed, with millions now dependent on humanitarian aid for survival.
Drug production and smuggling — along with the exploitation and sale of natural resources — have surged as key sources of war financing, though no reliable data exist. Arrest records and seizures suggest the trade has expanded dramatically. Environmental destruction from reckless extraction has also accelerated.
The Root of Collapse: The 2021 Coup
The single event that ignited this national catastrophe was the military coup of February 1, 2021.
That coup, which overthrew the elected NLD government just before the new parliament was to convene, effectively opened a Pandora’s box that unleashed the current crisis.
Now, the same coup leader — Senior General Min Aung Hlaing — is publicly calling for a return to the kind of stability that existed between 2015 and 2020. Yet, as ordinary citizens understand, this is absurd: the coup itself destroyed that stability.
Among the groups that originally signed the NCA — such as the KNU, CNF, ABSDF, NMSP (and its splinter NMSP-AD), and PNLO/PNLA — many have since resumed fighting against the military.
The NCA, once a symbol of progress, has now shattered like broken pottery, impossible to mend. Of the three parties who signed it — the government, the parliament, and the armed groups — only some armed organizations and the coup regime remain; there is no longer an elected government or functioning legislature.
The 2025 Anniversary Event
At this year’s ceremony, the junta chief declared that ethnic organizations should submit their political demands “through parliament,” not “at gunpoint.”
But that argument rings hollow: the very reason there is no parliament is because the military dissolved it by force in 2021.
In fact, it was the military’s annulment of the 2020 election results — the third held under the 2008 Constitution — that plunged the country back into war.
Those attending the 10th-anniversary events included:
-
Some ethnic armed groups not currently fighting the junta,
-
Certain political party representatives,
-
Military officials,
-
And diplomats from neighboring countries — notably China and Thailand.
China’s Position and Influence
China’s representatives stated that Beijing is “ready to assist technically” in the junta’s upcoming elections, while also expressing that it “does not wish to see Myanmar fall into uncontrollable instability.”
That phrasing suggests that China does not want Myanmar’s border regions to fall fully under independent armed control, but also prefers a manageable, stable buffer state. While China does not decide Myanmar’s future, its influence remains immense.
UWSA’s Position
A representative from the United Wa State Party (UWSP) — which effectively governs its own territory — stated that it “supports the upcoming election.” However, Wa-controlled regions did not participate in previous elections, nor send representatives to parliament.
This statement, therefore, appears to be more about maintaining friendly ties with the junta than genuine political participation.
Interpretation and Outlook
This year’s event was more elaborate than previous NCA anniversaries, reflecting the junta’s effort to use it as political theater — a staged show of “peace progress” ahead of a potential future election.
Yet in reality, Myanmar is more fractured and war-torn than at any point in the last half-century.
The NCA’s promise of peace has long vanished, and the junta’s commemoration only underscores how far the country has fallen since that signing ten years ago.