Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 17: Scene
(MoeMaKa, October 18, 2025)
Myanmar Still Far from Peace
The 10th Anniversary of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) — first signed on October 15, 2015 between the government and eight ethnic armed organizations — has concluded after a three-day commemoration in Naypyitaw.
During these three days, numerous panel discussions and roundtables were held. Attendees included leaders from ethnic armed groups not currently fighting the junta, political parties, former peace negotiators, diplomats, former ambassadors, and some international academics who had been involved in Myanmar’s peace process over the past decade.
However, even as these peace ceremonies and dialogues were taking place in Naypyitaw, Myanmar was burning with war.
While generals and officials were talking about peace in the capital, people across the country were fleeing bombings and airstrikes.
During the same days of the NCA commemoration — October 15 to 17 — fierce battles broke out in Hsipaw in northern Shan State, where the TNLA lost control of the town. Meanwhile, the Arakan Army (AA) launched heavy attacks on the Nat Yekan base on the border between Bago Region (west) and Rakhine State.
At the same time, the KNU/KNLA was fighting intense clashes with junta troops in the Lay Kay Kaw area south of Myawaddy, Karen State.
In Bhamo, Kachin State — a battle that has lasted nearly ten months — the KIA continues to fight against junta forces.
Who Attended — and Who Boycotted
The National Unity Government (NUG) and most ethnic armed organizations currently fighting the junta boycotted the ceremony and urged others not to attend.
Those who did attend were mainly groups not in open conflict with the regime, including:
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The UWSA (United Wa State Army) — whose delegates expressed support for the junta’s planned “elections.”
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The New Mon State Party (NMSP) — an NCA signatory.
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Smaller groups like the KNU/KNLA (Peace Council) and DKBA, which sent representatives.
Meanwhile, the NMSP-AD, a splinter faction of the Mon party, publicly declined to attend the ceremony.
The Military’s History of Empty Peace Talk
Myanmar’s military has never sincerely believed in peace, only in control.
Even during the quasi-civilian government (2011–2015) led by retired generals, clashes with the KIA persisted.
When the NLD under Aung San Suu Kyi took office in 2016, the new government announced peace as its top priority and reorganized the peace architecture. It held several Union Peace Conferences, but the military openly demonstrated its lack of commitment.
The armed forces obstructed progress, ensuring that no government could truly end Myanmar’s decades-long civil wars.
Rather than cooperating, the military deliberately used delay tactics and political manipulation to prevent the NLD from achieving meaningful peace.
After the Coup: A New Generation of Armed Resistance
Following the February 2021 coup, not only did pre-existing ethnic armed groups resume fighting, but entirely new armed organizations formed across the country.
Myanmar’s “peace process” effectively reset to year zero, starting a new chapter of protracted war.
The new resistance forces — born out of the people’s outrage at the coup — now pursue a goal once unthinkable for many ethnic groups:
“To completely defeat the military institution that was born from the independence struggle itself.”
The slogans have changed.
The old ethnic armies once spoke of “self-determination” and “autonomy.”
The new People’s Defense Forces now shout “cut the roots of fascism” and “no dialogue with tyranny.”
A Nation Consumed by Endless Fire
As Myanmar’s internal wars rage into their seventh decade, and nearly five years have passed since the latest military coup, the country faces its bleakest horizon yet.
Looking ahead from 2025, the future shows no light of peace — only the flames and smoke of civil war.