Myanmar Spring Chronicle – September 3 Highlights
(MoeMaKa, September 4, 2025)
How Thailand’s Political Instability Could Affect Myanmar People in Thailand
With Myanmar’s civil war ongoing, millions of Myanmar nationals have left the country temporarily in various ways and for various reasons, many settling in Thailand. In recent months, Thailand’s political situation has become unstable.
In the past few months, amid a Thailand–Cambodia border dispute, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra spoke by phone with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen, during which she criticized the commander of Thailand’s 2nd Army Region. When Hun Sen leaked the audio, the opposition filed a petition to Thailand’s Constitutional Court, alleging misconduct inconsistent with the prime minister’s duties.
The Constitutional Court accepted the case and scheduled a decision for August 29, suspending the prime minister in the meantime. While the case was pending, border clashes broke out along the Thai–Cambodian frontier, lasting about five days, causing civilian casualties, displacing tens of thousands, disrupting cross-border trade, and forcing migrant workers to return home—inflicting economic damage on both countries.
On August 29, the Constitutional Court removed Paetongtarn from office as prime minister and as a minister. The majority government formed by her party could not continue and had to be reconstituted.
This political turbulence comes as Thailand’s economy is weakening. The tourism sector is down, and auto plants in Thailand backed by Japanese and U.S. manufacturers are facing slumping sales as Chinese EVs surge in popularity. Once one of Southeast Asia’s “tiger economies,” Thailand now looks unstable amid technological and market shifts and a political sphere marked by power bargaining among the military, politicians, and the monarchy.
Thailand has been the nearest refuge whenever Myanmar faces political crises and escalating conflict. Economically, it employs millions of Myanmar migrant workers. Ethnic armed groups along the border—Shan, Karenni (Kayah), Karen, Mon—have long interacted with Thailand, relying informally on it for everything from relief and medicine to, at times, weapons and ammunition. Historically, Thailand also hosted U Nu’s party and armed group in the 1970s, students who went underground after 1988, and, since the 2021 coup, many youth activists, politicians, and human-rights defenders living in border areas or inside Thailand.
Given these realities, Thailand’s political shifts and instability inevitably have major impacts on Myanmar nationals there.
In recent months in Mae Sot, Thailand’s largest Thai–Myanmar border town, authorities conducted months-long operations checking residence permits, work authorization, whether a worker’s registered location matches the actual workplace, and even arresting drivers of three-wheelers. Long-time Myanmar residents in Mae Sot say this has been the strictest enforcement in decades. Why? As Thailand’s economy slows and job opportunities shrink, some Thai politicians argue that Myanmar migrants are taking jobs Thais could hold. Members of Parliament have pressed ministries to intensify checks on legal residence, to probe whether foreigners are working in prohibited occupations, and to crack down on transport work, food vending, and illegal imports from Myanmar.
In reality, millions of Myanmar migrant workers are indispensable to Thailand’s economy. Beyond Myanmar workers, there are also Cambodian and Lao migrants—fewer in number—but during the recent border fighting, hundreds of thousands of Cambodian workers returned home. Thai employers have been preparing to fill the resulting labor gaps with Myanmar workers.
Seen this way, Thailand and Myanmar’s migrant labor force are in a mutually dependent relationship. But in politically unstable times, Thai politicians often weaponize migration and illegal border-crossing issues to rally domestic support.
Although the Pheu Thai Party petitioned to dissolve parliament, the King and the Privy Council did not approve it, so new elections have not yet been called. Still, Thailand appears unable to form a strong, stable government for now, and cabinet reshuffles—including at the Labor Ministry, which oversees migrant workers—are likely, bringing policy changes to some degree.
Bottom line: Myanmar nationals in Thailand should closely monitor Thai political developments, as forthcoming changes could directly affect their legal status, employment, and daily life.