Myanmar Spring Chronicle – View from September 7
(Moemaka), September 8, 2025
Four years since the declaration of the People’s Defensive War: the military, political, and economic situation
On September 7, 2021, the National Unity Government’s Acting President Duwa Lashi La declared the launch of the People’s Defensive War, calling on PDF units inside Myanmar and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to join in. Today marks four full years since that announcement.
The People’s Defense Force (PDF) had been formed that May, and four months later the NUG issued the call—popularly referred to as “D-Day.” At that time the PDFs had not yet formed nationwide. The call urged resistance with whatever strength existed, and no clear military successes were seen then. It was over a year later, after the Operation 1027 offensive launched by the Northern Brotherhood Alliance, that towns, regiments, operational command headquarters, and regional command headquarters were taken in rapid succession.
In a speech marking the fourth anniversary of the declaration, Acting President Duwa Lashi La said the brutal Myanmar military, which had been on the verge of collapse, has been regaining military, political, financial, and weapons support from regional countries—something he lamented.
He did not name those countries, but the reference likely points mainly to China and India. Other ASEAN states—Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam—do not have the same capacity to assist, but after the major Sagaing earthquake there was re-engagement diplomatically. The coup leader used the humanitarian window created by the disaster to soften diplomatic isolation and propagate the image of being a recognized government.
Four years on from the declaration, fighting continues in many parts of Myanmar. Even in areas without active battles, airstrikes and shelling keep the public in fear.
In territory held by EAOs and PDFs, there is still no effective way to fully protect against air attacks. News of civilian casualties from air operations is heard daily—more often than casualties among armed fighters.
Although the junta controls less than 50% of the country’s territory, it still enjoys nationwide dominance in the air. It continues to sustain the aircraft, fuel, spare parts, air bases, and personnel needed for air operations.
Another constraint for the resistance is limited access to seaports and formal cross-border trade. Some controlled areas have coastlines, but lack the status to trade officially with other countries. For example, even though the Arakan Army controls 80–90% of Rakhine State, it still cannot legally trade with Bangladesh.
EAOs based along the China border can import and export essentials—or obtain arms and ammunition—only by adhering to China’s Myanmar policy. Border trade and supplies in those landlocked ethnic areas depend on China’s preferences.
Economically and politically, after four years there has not yet been agreement among the EAOs and the NUG on the future shape of the Union. The NUCC Federal Charter exists, but it has not been politically endorsed by all ethnic armed organizations.
Part of the reason is that each EAO has different histories, political backgrounds, and geopolitics, making it hard to converge on a single federal model.
Looking at the economy over the past four years: the junta still captures most natural-resource revenues and customs, spending the bulk on the war. It has not yet hit a breaking point. The ones truly suffering are ordinary people. Military restrictions on trade and on foreign-currency use have driven steep price inflation. Within the country, as goods move from one area to another, all armed actors collect taxes from their respective zones at non-standard rates, adding to price hikes. Corruption within the junta and its administrative machinery is at unprecedented levels, and the public bears the cost.
Under these economic conditions, production has sagged. Instability has made labor scarce, and the conscription law has pushed many youths abroad; output has dropped. In some areas, even after the rice harvest, there are no buyers.
As the civil war approaches five years, and four years after the People’s Defensive War was declared, the public’s hope that the war will be won—or end—soon remains only a faint glimmer on a distant horizon.