Myanmar Spring Chronicle – View from September 11
(MoeMaKa), September 12, 2025
An election staged to project the image the military wants; treason/“undermining state prestige” conviction against Dr. Aye Maung cleared
After the junta set a date last month for the election it intends to run, candidate registrations have begun. Former generals—now in civilian dress—are maneuvering to join a post-election government.
Before 2010, former NLD figures U Khin Maung Swe and the late Dr. Than Nyein split to found the National Democratic Force (NDF) and contested the polls. Fifteen years later, as NDF prepared to run in an election the NLD will not contest, the current Election Commission has not only barred it from competing on the grounds of insufficient membership, but also dissolved the party.
Following the 2021 coup, the regime issued a new Political Parties Registration Law. Under the previous rules, a party that lacked members could still register to compete at state/region level even if it could not qualify to contest nationwide. The new law raises the bar sharply: a Union-level party must have 100,000 members and be able to field candidates in more than half of the 330 townships (at least 165). The apparent intent is to confine mid-sized and small parties to state/region level and to keep ethnic parties and under-resourced parties from becoming meaningful competitors.
The elections—planned to be held in phases at the end of 2025 and into early 2026—are being organized amid a wide-raging civil war. Nearly one in ten people has been displaced, armed resistance continues, and in major towns underground actions and assassinations are widespread. Under such conditions, recruiting members, registering as a party, or standing as a candidate is extremely difficult. In active conflict areas, campaigning or voting is barely conceivable; candidates face far greater risks of abduction or assassination than chances of ever reaching a parliament. Just in recent days, three organizers from the People’s Pioneer Party who went to Hlegu Township were reportedly abducted by an unidentified armed group.
Given this environment, parties aiming to register at Union level—100,000 members and at least 165 townships—face daunting hurdles. The announcement dissolving NDF has deepened longstanding doubts about the junta’s electoral track. Among the four parties just dissolved, NDF in particular seemed capable of attracting a measure of public support. Founded by U Khin Maung Swe—who later served on the post-coup State Administration Council—and now led by him, NDF had been gearing up to run actively in 2025/26; the move feels like hobbling a horse right at the starting gate. Former NLD MP Daw Sandar Min, a prominent figure criticized by many for urging a legalistic course after the coup, had joined NDF as a vice-chair just before nominations opened. That raised fears that some NLD members, organizers, and supporters opposed to armed struggle might drift to NDF—giving the authorities an incentive to find pretexts to curtail the party. The dissolution of NDF along with three others has driven public interest and trust in the election to a new low.
Another development linked to the polls concerns Dr. Aye Maung. In 2018, after a speech in Rathedaung marking the fall of the Arakan Kingdom, he was arrested on his way to Sittwe and later sentenced to 20 years under Penal Code §122 (treason) and for “undermining the dignity of the state.” Shortly after the 2021 coup, the junta released him by amnesty even though part of the sentence technically remained—leaving him with an “outstanding” conviction that barred him from candidacy. Now, by executive action, the authorities have cleared those outstanding penalties so he can run in the election.
Given current conditions in Rakhine, the junta realistically can hold polling only in two towns, Sittwe and Kyaukphyu; elsewhere its forces are tied down resisting AA offensives. Any Rakhine voting would therefore be largely “remote” (absentee) in nature. The clearing of Dr. Aye Maung’s record appears aimed at using him as one of a small number of Rakhine candidates in such an absentee election.