Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 17 Perspective
Moemaka, August 18, 2025
Airstrikes and the Military Commission’s Military Strategy
Airstrikes and bombing incidents are now so frequent in Myanmar that they are no longer considered “breaking news.” However, when attacks target densely populated civilian areas and result in large-scale civilian deaths, these events still draw significant attention.
On August 17, the Mawchi area of Karenni (Kayah) State, known for its mineral resources, was bombed twice in a single day by military aircraft. As of the evening, 24 people had been reported killed, and the number was expected to rise, according to local news sources.
In the morning, a hospital in Lokhar Village, Mawchi area, was targeted, resulting in at least one death and several injuries, as some reports confirmed.
Mawchi is a territory controlled by Karenni revolutionary armed forces, located in a mountainous region, not a flatland, with homes built along hilly terrain. It has long been known as a mineral-rich zone.
Karenni State has seen frequent airstrikes in recent weeks, causing repeated civilian casualties. This double airstrike on August 17, which killed around two dozen people, was particularly traumatic and has been widely recorded as one of the most devastating incidents.
The military junta, knowing full well that civilians were present in the target zones, proceeded with the attack anyway. The aim seems clear—to exert pressure on the ethnic armed groups controlling these areas. Since the bombed sites were not legitimate military targets, it is fair to conclude the strikes were intended as a tactic of terror and coercion.
In addition to Mawchi in Karenni State, airstrikes were also reported on the same day in:
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Mogok, Mandalay Region (controlled by TNLA)
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Kanpetlet, Chin State
In Mogok, a bomb exploded near a commercial bank, killing three passersby, according to Mandalay-focused news outlet MFP. Just days earlier, a residential area in Mogok had been bombed, killing around 20 civilians.
As Myanmar sees daily air raids across various regions, it becomes clear that the Military Commission’s broader strategy is to prepare for renewed offensives ahead of the planned 2025–2026 elections.
Renewed assaults are now being observed in:
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Northern Shan State
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Karenni State
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Karen State
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Kachin State
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Rakhine State
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Sagaing Region
For example, in Karen State, reports say 2,000 troops have been deployed to retake control of the Asia Highway between Myawaddy and Kawkareik—lost during past offensives. This indicates an attempt to reverse losses from mid-2024, when the junta lost numerous battalion bases in the region.
In Karenni, after retaking Mobye, the military is now reportedly preparing to seize Demoso. Despite losing control of Farsong, a key base, the junta had earlier recaptured Loikaw (lost in the 1027 Operation), and is now pushing to regain control of surrounding towns.
In Kachin State, the military has been besieging Bhamo for more than six months. Recent river-borne reinforcements have allowed the junta to recapture some positions, shifting the previously stagnant front line. Still, neither side seems close to a decisive victory.
In northern Shan, after recapturing Nawngcho, junta forces are now reportedly preparing to launch offensives toward Kyaukme and Mogok.
In Sagaing Region, where various PDF factions operate, conflict has increased in places like Yinmarbin, Pale, Tantse, and Ye-U. Locals report that the military is launching simultaneous multi-front assaults.
Nationwide, the junta appears to be prioritizing key economic routes, such as border trade highways, rather than spreading its forces thinly to recapture all lost territory. The current strategy is to regain critical zones such as:
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Asia Highway (Myawaddy-Kawkareik)
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Nawngcho-Mongmit corridor
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Loikaw-Demoso line
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Strategic towns in Rakhine (Sittwe, Kyaukphyu)
Although the junta has lost vast areas in Rakhine, Karenni, Kachin, northern Shan, Chin, and Sagaing, it seems to be focusing its military efforts strategically on recapturing trade routes, resource-rich areas, and strategic urban centers, rather than attempting total reconquest.