Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 29 Highlights
(MoeMaKa, August 30, 2025)
The Importance of Facing Reality and Setting Strategy for the Revolution
After the February 1, 2021 military coup, the goals of the uprising were clearly set: to topple military dictatorship, to end extreme nationalism, and to build a genuine federal democracy. Both the intellectual and armed struggles were collectively called the Spring Revolution.
Although there has never been a precise, universally agreed definition of the Spring Revolution, its goals have been understood in those terms.
At the start, many people believed the revolution would succeed in six months, one year, or at most two years, based on speeches and calls from leading figures.
The Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) and nonviolent protests initially shook the junta, but by late February 2021 those methods alone could no longer force the generals to step down. By April and May of that year, People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) were formed to take up arms. Some analysts began to predict that the revolution would drag on for years.
Still, revolutionary leaders kept public morale high by insisting victory was close—perhaps in 2022, perhaps by 2023. Media outlets, too, reinforced this optimism, often presenting news in ways that fueled morale rather than grounded analysis. As a result, much of the public came to expect imminent victory.
Many resistance groups themselves often inflated casualty figures or territorial gains in their press releases, partly as a matter of psychological warfare. The media, repeating these statements uncritically, blurred the line between propaganda and fact—making it harder to grasp the true situation on the ground.
The launch of Operation 1027 on October 27, 2023 marked a dramatic turning point, shifting the battlefield momentum. Resistance forces seized opportunities in Shan State, Karenni, Rakhine, Sagaing, and Chin regions, gaining territory and momentum.
But by mid-2025, the situation had changed again. The junta has retaken some towns and positions. It is now time to study the reasons behind such losses and learn lessons, rather than relying on slogans or over-optimistic forecasts.
Rethinking Strategy Beyond Media Narratives
Media op-eds and political commentaries cannot serve as the sole basis for military or political strategy. With most outlets chasing popularity and social media revenue, their analyses often reflect audience sentiment rather than ground reality.
Instead, resistance forces must rely on:
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Factual information from the field
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Accurate data on casualties and territorial control
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Genuine public opinion, beyond what is amplified by media platforms
Public mobilization based on empty promises or exaggerated hopes can only last for so long. What is needed is honest communication with the people:
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Acknowledging hardships
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Preparing to face difficulties together
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Building long-term solidarity rooted in truth rather than false expectations
👉 In short: The time has come for revolutionary forces to confront reality directly, craft strategies based on facts, and engage the public honestly. Only through this can the Spring Revolution endure and ultimately prevail.