Myanmar Spring Chronicle – July 26 Viewpoint
(MoeMaKa, July 27, 2025)
Junta Airstrikes in Mogok and Katha, Shelling of Naung Pain Village in Kyaukme
A few days after the junta recaptured Naung Cho, its military escalated offensives with airstrikes targeting the Shwe Lipyar Hotel in Mogok, and bombed multiple villages along the Irrawaddy River near northern Katha Township. Simultaneously, Naung Pain village in neighboring Kyaukme Township, close to Naung Cho, was shelled, damaging civilian homes.
Following the recapture of Naung Cho, speculation has grown that junta forces might launch further offensives to retake Mogok and Kyaukme, which are currently under the control of the TNLA (Ta’ang National Liberation Army). These recent air and artillery attacks seem to reflect that intent.
The junta’s naval fleet, believed to be heading toward Bhamo, the site of a prolonged battle with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), conducted bombardments along both banks of the Irrawaddy River. Villages along the river were shelled from both the river and air, as military vessels advanced upriver.
MDY-PDF and other resistance forces operating along the river attacked the junta fleet, reportedly damaging or sinking some vessels.
The fleet, which departed from Mandalay, previously conducted air raids in villages near Wakema Township in Shwebo District, resulting in around 20 civilian deaths. In recent days, airstrikes hit Myay Nu, Moe Dar, Bawdhikon, and Taikkon villages in northern Katha Township, reportedly killing at least one civilian in Myay Nu.
During monsoon season, when river levels rise, the junta is using naval routes to transport troops, weapons, and supplies, with air support. Despite some attacks on their fleet, the recent recapture of Sadaung appears to have boosted the junta’s morale and logistical capability.
In the north, the junta’s success in retaking Naung Cho has been swiftly followed by an increase in propaganda and battlefield claims. The regime released official statements detailing how they recaptured Naung Cho, and quickly followed with similar announcements after retaking Sadaung.
In contrast, defeats or ongoing pressure in places like Bhamo, or recent losses in Karen State border outposts, receive no such coverage. The junta is now likely trying to use its recent wins to boost troop morale and project military strength.
On July 26, the junta bombed the Shwe Lipyar Hotel in Mogok, reportedly killing a hotel employee. The attack was allegedly based on suspicion that TNLA troops were stationed there, though this claim remains unverified.
On the same day, Naung Pain village in Kyaukme was shelled, hitting civilian homes and killing a woman. The motive remains unclear, but this attack may signal the junta’s intention to push further into Kyaukme and Mogok, which were both seized by TNLA during Operation 1027.
Mogok, situated on the Mandalay–Muse trade route, is of strategic economic value, especially for cross-border trade with China, making it a high-priority target for the junta. Mogok is also a gemstone-rich area, similar to Hpakant and Tanaing, which the junta is eager to reclaim for revenue.
From the junta’s perspective, controlling these resource-rich towns could fund its operations and cut off income streams for resistance forces. The recapture of Mogok would therefore not only be symbolic, but also strategically lucrative.
Resistance forces, particularly ethnic armed groups like the TNLA, will likely need to form strong coalitions to effectively defend against these renewed junta offensives. The dissolution of alliances after Operation 1027 has weakened the resistance’s collective power.
This raises critical questions:
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How can the resistance rebuild its coalition?
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How can various groups align under shared goals and strategies?
As of now, these questions remain unanswered.