Myanmar Spring Chronicle – July 13 Viewpoint
Moemaka, July 14, 2025
Global Geopolitics and Myanmar’s Escalating Crisis
The political crisis in Myanmar—manifesting as a raging civil war—has reached a critical juncture at a time when the world is also teetering on the edge of major conflict. Some analysts are warning that, since the end of World War II, global conditions have never been so reminiscent of the brink of another world war.
Over the past 80 years, there have certainly been intense regional wars and Cold War tensions, but since 2022, the world has entered a new phase—marked by large-scale armed conflicts, prolonged wars lasting years, and great powers backing proxy combatants with weapons and funds. All of this is beginning to resemble Cold War-era geopolitical rivalry, now intensified.
A historical comparison is the Korean War (1950–1953), in which North Korea invaded the South, prompting a U.S.-led United Nations response. China joined to support the North, and both sides clashed heavily. In 1963, the Cuban Missile Crisis brought the world to the brink of nuclear war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. In the decades that followed, both countries engaged in arms races, developing nuclear arsenals, and eventually ushering in the era of multiple nuclear-armed states.
After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989, many assumed the Cold War had ended. But with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it has become clear that a new era of Cold War-like global confrontation is underway.
For Western Europe, the war in Ukraine is like watching a house fire next door. Nations there have boosted their defense budgets and rushed to support Ukraine militarily. Europe and the broader Middle East are now grappling with the spillover effects of a war that was once seen as distant.
Meanwhile, in Gaza, Israel has been accused of committing genocidal acts against over two million Palestinians, even as the international community has failed to find a path to peace. Recently, Israel escalated tensions by launching military strikes against Iran, targeting senior Iranian military figures, and drawing the U.S. into the confrontation under the justification that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons development.
The U.S. itself has conducted airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities—further destabilizing global security and pushing the world closer to open warfare. This has once again placed the world on the edge of a global crisis.
In the Asia-Pacific, fears are also rising that China may attempt to forcibly reunify Taiwan. If that happens, a direct military confrontation between China and the U.S. could erupt in the region. As major powers pursue geopolitical dominance through militarized strategies, the likelihood of proxy wars escalating into direct conflict is increasing.
Against this backdrop, Myanmar is burning from within, engulfed in a civil war. International institutions like the United Nations and ASEAN have proven largely incapable of mediating or influencing the situation. Furthermore, a key global power—China—is deeply entangled in Myanmar’s internal affairs due to its own strategic and economic interests. This makes dismantling the military dictatorship even more difficult and complex.
Resolving Myanmar’s crisis now requires not only the participation of various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), Burmese resistance forces like the PDFs, and the National Unity Government (NUG), but also consideration of the powerful role played by China. It is increasingly clear that China’s influence cannot be ignored in shaping the outcome.
Meanwhile, support from Western nations—including the U.S.—is growing more uncertain. U.S. foreign policy is now being driven by a doctrine of “America First,” “America Second,” and “America Third”—a ranking that prioritizes U.S. interests above all else. In this global climate, it is becoming unrealistic to expect significant, long-term Western intervention in support of democracy in Myanmar.
This leaves Myanmar caught between the competing influences of regional powers China and India—both of which seek to expand their strategic foothold. As such, resistance forces must be extremely careful not to become pawns in a new geopolitical proxy war.
The international system now prioritizes profit and power over democratic values or equality. In this climate, Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement must urgently unite, avoid internal divisions, and resist allowing narrow group interests to override the collective national cause.
More than relying on external support, the resistance must focus on internal unity. And with external interference unlikely to diminish, it is now more important than ever for groups with shared goals to build strong coalitions. This is a decisive moment that could shape the future of Myanmar.