Myanmar Spring Chronicle – June 24 View (MoeMaKa, June 25, 2025):
Junta Forces Advance Toward Naungcho; Civilian Casualties from Airstrike in Kyaukme
The town of Naungcho, seized by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) since last year, has now come under threat as junta forces push their offensive closer in recent weeks and months. Reports indicate that the military has reached the outskirts of the town.
After MNDAA (Kokang armed group) reached a ceasefire deal with the junta in January and agreed to hand back control of Lashio, the military gained breathing space and redirected its focus toward reclaiming territories held by TNLA. The withdrawal of MNDAA from confrontation provided the junta with strategic flexibility to refocus military efforts.
Most believe the ceasefire was primarily driven by Chinese pressure on MNDAA. Additionally, MNDAA may have achieved some of its core objectives — making the handover of Lashio a tactical compromise. However, it was reportedly China’s disapproval of ethnic armed groups taking over key trade corridors — including areas tied to oil and gas pipelines and the BRI railway project — that triggered a shift in policy and halted further advances.
As a result, China has openly signaled its stance to the northern ethnic armed groups and used both diplomatic and economic leverage to protect its strategic interests along the China–Myanmar border.
Now, TNLA is left trying to defend its hard-won towns and territories, while resisting increased pressure to agree to a ceasefire and hand back trade corridor towns. TNLA is in a position where it must both militarily defend its holdings and politically resist Chinese pressure.
The junta, with the backing of China’s diplomatic tolerance, has begun making gains in areas like Taung Kham and Naungcho, which were once considered strongholds of Operation 1027.
Although TNLA and allied groups like the Danu PDF launched heavy assaults on junta artillery positions in Taung Kham in prior months, they failed to fully capture the area. Since then, some villages have been relinquished, and junta troops have advanced to within 5 miles of Naungcho town.
In the wake of the MNDAA–junta ceasefire, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, once the core military bloc of Operation 1027, is no longer engaging in joint offensives. TNLA now appears to be operating independently, rather than as part of a coordinated campaign.
The only visible cooperation among the alliance at present is the continued control of the 105-mile trade gate in Muse, where taxes are still collected.
The junta’s renewed focus on recapturing Naungcho reflects an effort to reverse its territorial losses during Operation 1027. Although it regained Lashio through political means, reclaiming Naungcho through military victory would be a morale-boosting win for the junta.
As junta troops move closer to Naungcho, the situation escalated on June 24, when an airstrike in Kyaukme resulted in four civilians killed and four others injured, according to DVB. The bombs reportedly hit near teashops and residential areas where displaced families were sheltering.
Airstrikes now pose a threat not only in active conflict zones but also in towns and villages under the control of ethnic armed groups and PDFs. Regions like Rakhine, northern Shan, Kachin, Sagaing, Magway, Karen, Kayah, Tanintharyi, Bago, and Mandalay are all facing ongoing risk.
Using its nationwide airbases, the junta regularly deploys fighter jets, training planes, and helicopters, launching near-daily airstrikes across resistance-held territories.
These airstrikes are increasingly viewed as war crimes, but at present, the ethnic armed forces and NUG/PDFs do not yet have the capacity to effectively counter or deter them.