Myanmar Spring Chronicle – May 30 Viewpoint
by MoeMaKa on May 31, 2025:
Is the Junta Truly Committed to Earthquake Recovery?
More than two months after the devastating earthquake, debris clearance is still not complete, and many remain without permanent housing, living in makeshift tents at religious sites and open spaces. Several major highways are still partially disconnected. In Mandalay, the most casualties and damage occurred at the Sky Villa condo building, where even now, clearance operations are ongoing, and additional bodies continue to be recovered. Similar debris clearance is still underway in heavily affected areas of Sagaing, Pyin Oo Lwin, and elsewhere in Mandalay Region.
Recently, damage assessments estimated total losses at over MMK 3,600 billion. Yet, there is still no clear roadmap or announced budget for reconstruction. On May 30, the junta hosted a forum on this subject, titled “Post-Earthquake Myanmar Economic Recovery and Reconstruction.” This event was reportedly organized by the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI) and the Myanmar Narrative Think Tank, with junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in attendance.
The World Bank had earlier estimated the total damage at over USD 10 billion, a figure significantly higher than the junta’s estimate. Discussions at the forum compared post-Nargis Cyclone recovery in 2008, the post-2010 economic upswing, the COVID-era economic downturn, and the aftermath of Cyclone Mocha and monsoon floods after 2021. However, there was no discussion of whether the country is currently in a viable position to recover from recent disasters.
Strikingly, the impact of armed conflict and the ongoing civil war was deliberately left out of the discussion.
Unlike the post-Nargis recovery period—when Myanmar was receiving international support for its democratic transition—post-2021 recovery efforts are occurring amid ongoing civil war, sanctions, and political instability.
Within the two months since the earthquake, the junta held two donation ceremonies, raising over MMK 100 billion each time. The second event reportedly brought in MMK 125 billion and over USD 2 million. In addition, international governments pledged nearly USD 200 million, with China being the largest donor. China provided USD 10+ million in emergency relief and pledged another CNY 1 billion (approx. USD 138 million) in humanitarian aid.
Still, the total raised domestically—around MMK 250 billion—is far from sufficient, and how the funds will be allocated and managed is a key question.
Reconstruction is further complicated because many affected areas, especially in Sagaing and Mandalay Regions, are active conflict zones. For example, Mingun Township, one of the hardest hit by both the earthquake and ongoing conflict, remains unstable.
When the earthquake struck, Myanmar was already in the midst of a raging civil war. The UN, ASEAN, and international actors called for a ceasefire, but in practice, airstrikes by the junta continued. Even during emergency relief operations, fighting did not ease. Therefore, there is little hope that reconstruction will proceed peacefully.
Transport restrictions, military checkpoints, and high tolls will further hamper recovery efforts. The junta’s planned reconstruction budget, totaling only in the hundreds of billions MMK, stands in stark contrast to its annual defense spending exceeding MMK 5,000 billion.
This glaring disparity shows how little priority the junta places on disaster recovery compared to military operations.