Myanmar Spring Chronicle – May 21 Viewpoint
MoeMaKa, May 22, 2025
The Tamu Incident and Myanmar’s Relations with Neighboring Countries
Myanmar shares borders with five countries. Among them are two major global powers—China, the world’s most populous country and second-largest economy, and India, a growing economic heavyweight. The other three are Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated nations; Thailand, which hosts millions of Burmese migrant workers; and Laos, governed by a communist regime.
The relationships between ethnic armed groups resisting Myanmar’s military and its neighboring countries—as well as between the National Unity Government (NUG) and individual neighboring states—are crucial in shaping the dynamics of resistance. Analysts widely acknowledge this as an important geopolitical factor.
Myanmar’s foreign relations, especially with China, India, and Thailand, frequently influence both diplomatic and military outcomes. In particular, Thailand’s and ASEAN’s positions matter deeply to the NUG and ethnic resistance forces.
The Tamu Incident and Indian Relations
The recent Tamu incident, in which 10 members of a local People’s Defense Force (PDF) were reportedly captured and executed by the Assam Rifles, an Indian paramilitary force, raises complex questions. It puts a spotlight on India’s stance toward PDF forces and whether this event signals deeper implications for India-Myanmar relations going forward.
It also raises questions about how aligned India’s central government and the Manipur state government are regarding Myanmar. The Indian central government has maintained a cordial relationship with Myanmar’s military regime, showing no signs of support for resistance forces over the past four years.
Meanwhile, Manipur, which borders Myanmar’s Tamu region, has its own insurgency problems with Kuki separatists. Even before the 2021 coup, there were military collaborations between Indian forces and Myanmar’s military to address cross-border insurgents.
India has a long history of border tensions—with Pakistan, China, and now Myanmar. And while Myanmar and India don’t have a territorial dispute, instability along the border has prompted Manipur to erect fences in recent years. This contrasts with Thailand’s approach, which tends to be more tolerant toward resistance activity near its borders.
Border Movement Agreements and Fallout
Before the coup, both India and Myanmar had agreed to allow cross-border movement for residents within 10 kilometers of the border. However, after the coup and the escalation of armed resistance, Manipur started fortifying its border, which resistance groups and local communities protested.
This growing tension likely played a role in the May 13 incident, where 10 PDF members were allegedly captured with weapons and later found dead. The NUG has publicly called for an investigation, but Manipur authorities have not responded. It is unclear whether Manipur regards the NUG as a legitimate actor or even as a de facto authority worth engaging with.
This situation also raises questions about how much influence the Indian central government has over the actions of individual state governments, such as Manipur’s.
Diplomatic Consequences and Future Movement
The fallout from this event might make it harder for PDF units to continue operating in areas near Manipur. For the NUG, the incident underscores the need for both public diplomacy and backchannel negotiations to prevent such incidents from recurring.
Compared to Thailand—where the military tends to remain neutral when clashes occur across the border—India’s Manipur state is taking a hardline stance, shaped in part by its own internal security challenges.
If events like the Tamu incident continue without resolution, it may pose new barriers for resistance forces operating along the India-Myanmar border. The NUG will need to engage in strategic diplomacy, both overt and covert, to manage these delicate regional relationships.