Myanmar Spring Chronicle – May 23 Viewpoint
MoeMaKa, May 24, 2025
Is the Myanmar Crisis Drifting Under the International Radar?
Myanmar’s political crisis has recently resurfaced in international headlines. Following the Myanmar military leader’s visit to Russia, shifts in Myanmar’s relations with neighboring countries have become noticeable. After clashes between local armed groups on the India-Myanmar border and the killing of NUG-aligned People’s Defense Forces (PDF) members, this issue has moved to the forefront.
The National Unity Government (NUG) strongly condemned the incident and demanded accountability. The General Strike Coordination Body (GSCB), a major alliance of anti-junta forces, urged India not to unilaterally construct border fences during such a politically unstable time.
On May 24, the GSCB issued a statement about the killing of PDF members in Tamu District on the India-Myanmar border. Even before this incident, regional news outlets in Bangladesh and India had been reporting on potential humanitarian corridor discussions with the Arakan Army (AA) and the Rohingya refugee crisis.
There have been mentions of military and border security dialogues in local press, as well as unverified social media claims of military exercises by Western powers such as the U.S.
Is Myanmar’s Crisis Becoming a Quiet Political Undercurrent?
Some analysts now question whether Myanmar’s political crisis has become an undercurrent—an issue no longer actively addressed by global powers but still influenced by behind-the-scenes strategic moves. This is sometimes referred to as an “undercurrent political situation,” a forceful yet unseen current beneath the surface.
A case in point is Bangladesh: reports have emerged that Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus initiated a plan to open a “Myanmar humanitarian corridor” without military consultation. The Bangladeshi military reportedly pushed back strongly, and Yunus was said to have expressed a desire to resign due to frustration and internal disagreement.
Bangladesh’s National Security Adviser Khalilur Rahman later clarified that no such corridor was discussed and that the government was only in talks with the UN about delivering humanitarian aid to Rakhine State. The incident highlighted the military’s strong role in Bangladesh’s emergency government.
East-West Influence and ASEAN Dissonance
The growing influence of China—regionally and globally—has prompted the U.S. and Western countries to act behind the scenes through their own networks and aligned governments and civil society organizations. In India-Pakistan conflicts, for instance, U.S. intervention has had impact; Bangladesh’s position on Myanmar may similarly reflect international pressure.
Meanwhile, ASEAN, encouraged by Malaysia and others, had initially been more active on Myanmar’s crisis earlier this year. However, ASEAN’s “Five-Point Consensus” plan has since been criticized as ineffective. The NUG has also denounced ASEAN’s mediation as impractical and declared that it does not recognize junta-organized elections. ASEAN summits are now seeing growing opposition to inviting Myanmar’s junta, and reports suggest the military leaders will not be invited to the May 26–27 summit.
Despite being sidelined from ASEAN, the military regime has not shifted its authoritarian policies or reconsidered its stance. Critics argue that exclusion from summits alone is insufficient to change the junta’s course.
Competing Narratives and Shifting Diplomacy
As countries bordering Myanmar—particularly those in the West and East—engage through different motivations, regional strategies increasingly aim to limit China’s dominance while avoiding direct confrontation with the junta. Geopolitical games continue beneath the surface.
A noteworthy development is an op-ed by NUG’s Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung published in the Bangkok Post. She compares Myanmar’s Spring Revolution to China’s revolutionary journey under Mao Zedong—highlighting resilience, innovation, and mass mobilization as key drivers of change.
She argues that just as China’s revolution was rooted in the people’s aspirations for sovereignty and dignity, Myanmar’s revolution is charting a similar course. She urges the international community to acknowledge two truths: the Spring Revolution is winning, and it is the only viable path toward peace and stability.
Zin Mar Aung’s message is a reminder to both East and West that Myanmar’s people are shaping their own destiny—and that both camps should treat the people of Myanmar with respect, rather than using them as pawns in geopolitical power plays.