Myanmar Spring Chronicle – May 8 Scene
MoeMaKa, May 9, 2025
Civil War, Shifting Conflict Dynamics, and the Sea of Suffering Felt by the People
For the people of Myanmar, the most common headlines in the news are about casualties and destruction caused by airstrikes, battles over military bases, towns and territories, and the death tolls involved. Alongside these, stories emerge of hundreds, thousands, even tens of thousands of people being displaced.
Since the major earthquake on March 28, news coverage has also been dominated by stories of deaths and destruction caused by the natural disaster. Even as the earthquake struck, battles and airstrikes were continuing simultaneously.
The people of Myanmar are not only suffering severely from the civil war, but also from the massive earthquake. Some international organizations, neighboring countries, and regional nations have used the earthquake as a reason to urge ceasefires and peace talks. However, because most armed groups believe that victory in the armed conflict is more important than humanitarian relief and reconstruction, it’s become evident that Myanmar’s civil war is unlikely to be paused for humanitarian reasons.
Though some ethnic armed organizations, the National Unity Government (NUG), and the military council have declared unilateral ceasefires or temporary halts to offensives, these announcements seem more like political gestures than genuine intentions.
Whether Myanmar has become a failed state or is on the brink of becoming one depends on how one defines a failed state. But due to war and natural disasters, millions have lost their homes, livelihoods, and loved ones. Many are living like characters out of the 550 Jataka tales—facing repeated suffering—and countless others have lost their homes, jobs, and now live in dependence on aid for survival. Even in major cities, where the war’s impact might seem minimal, people are dealing with skyrocketing prices, fuel and electricity shortages, and lawlessness leading to robbery and murder.
There’s a possibility that one side might eventually win the war and end it, but there’s also the strong likelihood of a prolonged stalemate (now over four years), or a frozen conflict where no group holds overwhelming power and each pursues its own agenda without a unifying goal.
These scenarios are becoming more visible as the conflict drags on and the balance of power shifts. Myanmar’s issues are often presented in black and white—heroes vs villains, democracy vs dictatorship—but these lines blur as time passes and interests change.
Under this collapsing situation, it is ordinary, powerless people who are struggling to survive. They endure war, excessive taxation, corruption, arbitrary military conscription, and even ransoms in the millions just to be released. They face never-before-seen price hikes and rising crime, living on in hope of a dim future.
And while people scrape together their meager savings to support armed groups in hopes of resisting tyranny, those same groups in some areas are also taxing and oppressing the very people who support them—leading to disillusionment and mistrust of all armed factions.
Such realities are eroding the hope of the people who once believed in the revolution. The main reason for this loss of faith is the lack of accountability among relevant organizations and the perception that organizational self-interest is being prioritized over the people’s welfare.