Myanmar Spring Chronicle – May 15 Viewpoint
MoeMaKa, May 16, 2025
Airstrikes, Civilian Casualties, and the Limits of Deterrence
Around 70% of daily news coverage in Myanmar now revolves around airstrikes. Though the exact locations may vary, the patterns are painfully familiar—homes, schools, and religious buildings hit, often with little to no military justification.
The junta’s airstrikes have become more precise and more frequent in recent days. With student and teacher deaths in Depayin Township and civilian casualties in villages across Rakhine State, demands to stop these aerial bombings have grown louder.
In light of this, public discourse has centered around several questions: Can airstrikes be stopped with anti-aircraft weapons? Can Myanmar be declared a no-fly zone? Can international pressure block aviation fuel and spare parts from reaching the junta?
While such ideas are being discussed, the likelihood of success remains slim. Cutting off aviation fuel would require cooperation from all nations that currently do business with the junta. Western sanctions alone won’t suffice if Southeast Asian countries continue trading. As long as the junta has funds, it will find ways to buy fuel.
Calls for such embargoes have existed for years, but without regional cooperation, they remain symbolic. INGO advocacy from within the region has tried to raise awareness, but the international community seems to treat Myanmar’s bombings as a domestic affair. Despite its lack of legitimacy, the junta is still treated as a de facto government under international law, making trade restrictions difficult.
The possibility of acquiring anti-aircraft weapons is nearly zero for the NUG, as it is not officially recognized as a government. Since the 2014 downing of a Malaysian airliner by Ukrainian rebels, global arms policy has become even more restrictive. The last notable exception was U.S. support for Afghan mujahideen in the Cold War—a precedent unlikely to be repeated.
Attempts to prevent the sale of aircraft parts to the junta are also unlikely to succeed, given that the military’s aircraft are primarily sourced from China and Russia, neither of which is responsive to such pressure.
As for the no-fly zone idea, no powerful state appears interested in enforcing it over Myanmar’s civil war. Even the UN has retreated from intervening in such internal conflicts, as seen in Gaza, Ukraine, and parts of Africa.
Given these realities, the only immediately viable strategy is to minimize civilian harm:
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Avoiding large gatherings
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Not holding public ceremonies where civilians and fighters mix
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Constructing and utilizing bomb shelters
While this doesn’t stop the airstrikes, it can reduce casualties. Local resistance groups and civil administrations have a responsibility to promote these safety measures.
Communities must also improve early warning systems, monitor aircraft movements, and maintain communication protocols to alert others of impending attacks.
Despite limitations in defending against air power, it’s crucial not to fall into the belief that every atrocity will speed up the revolution. Civilian life must be protected—not sacrificed—as part of the resistance.
Yes, the junta is committing war crimes. But resistance movements also carry a duty to shield the people living under their protection. This is not only a moral imperative but also a measure of legitimacy and leadership.