Myanmar Spring Chronicle – May 22 Viewpoint
MoeMaKa, May 23, 2025
AA Declares State of Emergency in Rakhine; Youths Restricted from Leaving the Region
Due to the ongoing conflict in parts of Rakhine State and adjacent regions of Bago, Magway, and Ayeyarwady, the Arakan Army (AA) has issued a declaration of national defense emergency. Under this order, youth between the ages of 18 and 45 (and 18 to 25 for women) are prohibited from leaving Rakhine State.
Rakhine Under De Facto AA Control
Currently, the only towns under junta control in Rakhine are the state capital Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, where a Chinese oil and gas pipeline project is located. The AA has taken control of the rest of the state, seizing military bases, regional commands, and administrative posts since November 2023.
Administrative Authority Shifts to ULA/AA
Administrative, economic, and public service functions in most of Rakhine are now reportedly managed by the Arakan Army and its political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA), according to local news sources.
Trade and Travel Restrictions Remain
Both the junta and the AA have placed restrictions on trade and movement between Rakhine and other states and regions, although flights between Sittwe and Yangon and some maritime cargo transport routes remain operational.
Junta’s Presence Confined to Sittwe
Junta administrative personnel in Rakhine are now confined to Sittwe, with no significant presence elsewhere. Civilian travel to other parts of the country from Rakhine is largely dependent on the Sittwe-Yangon air route.
Purpose of the AA’s Youth Restrictions
According to AA’s statement, the new restrictions are intended to prevent youths from secretly leaving Rakhine to avoid future military obligations.
Questions About Rakhine’s Future Political Structure
The current situation raises questions about the future political and administrative structure of Rakhine State. While the ULA/AA has promoted a self-governance model known as the “Arakha Strategy,” it remains unclear how this vision will interact with the rest of the country’s federal system or future central government relations.
Strategic Advantage and Border Trade
Rakhine’s access to the sea gives it strategic advantages over other landlocked ethnic states. Although part of Paletwa is under AA control, it lies outside of Rakhine and connects to India, offering alternative trade routes.
Governance Activities by Other Ethnic Armed Groups
Like other ethnic armed groups, the AA has taken over areas with mixed ethnic populations and is establishing governance structures. For example, the TNLA/PSLF recently announced plans to issue vehicle registration licenses starting May 25, and a TNLA urban management team completed a water access project in southern Shan State.
NUG’s CDM Governance and Support Networks
Across Myanmar, the NUG’s education and health ministries continue to work with local CDM staff, volunteers, and resistance forces to operate basic schools and clinics in conflict zones and resistance-controlled areas.
Grassroots Administration and Mobilization Trends
In most regions, these grassroots efforts rely heavily on both domestic and international support. In ethnic regions, such services are carried out under the directives of the leading ethnic armed organizations. Military support and recruitment are managed independently by each group, though the trend shows an increasing shift from voluntary to organized conscription and mobilization campaigns.