Myanmar Spring Chronicle – April 9: A Broader View
MoeMaKa, April 10, 2025
While Civil War Rages in Myanmar, Trade Wars Reignite Across the Globe
Since the military coup in 2021, Myanmar’s internal conflict—once sporadic—has escalated into a full-scale civil war engulfing the entire country. It is shaping up to be the most destructive and deadly civil conflict in modern Myanmar history.
At the same time, wars—both internal and international—are flaring up around the world. Some, like in Ukraine and Gaza, have caused greater destruction and loss of life than Myanmar’s conflict. Since the start of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, over 100,000 civilians have died. Meanwhile, Israel’s military offensives against Hamas in Gaza since 2023 have killed over 50,000 Palestinians. These wars have brought devastation, suffering, and displacement on a massive scale.
While those are literal wars with bombs and bullets, there’s another kind of war playing out on the global stage—trade wars. These are economic confrontations where countries raise tariffs, impose sanctions, and battle over financial interests. No one wins cleanly, and both sides often suffer.
After President Trump returned to power, he escalated the trade war by raising import tariffs on goods from over 180 countries. As of early April, this “reciprocal import tax policy,” as Trump calls it, has picked up pace. On April 3, his administration announced a new wave of import tariffs targeting dozens of countries, including key U.S. allies such as those in Western Europe, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea.
Myanmar was also included in the list. The U.S. announced a 44% tariff on goods imported from Myanmar—most notably garments from the country’s export-oriented garment factories. Given Myanmar’s unstable political and economic situation, ongoing conflict, and unreliable electricity supply, this added tariff further burdens an already struggling industry.
In recent days, Trump’s administration announced a 54% tariff on Chinese imports. China responded by matching and then raising tariffs, bringing them to 104%. In retaliation, China imposed an 84% tariff on U.S. imports.
The European Union also responded by announcing it would match U.S. tariffs imposed on their exports.
By the end of last week, despite the rising tension, close U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea avoided retaliation and instead sent delegates to Washington for negotiations. According to the Trump administration, nearly 50 countries have reached out for similar negotiations, a move the administration interprets as validation of their strategy—others, however, see it as coercion under threat of economic damage.
However, due to sharp drops in U.S. stock markets and growing unrest among American business leaders, President Trump seemed to soften his stance slightly, announcing a 90-day suspension of new tariffs—excluding China.
What’s clear is that many of the U.S.’s closest economic and military allies now question its reliability. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Germany host large contingents of U.S. troops and military bases, yet even they are not spared from punitive tariffs.
So, how will Myanmar be affected by this global trade war?
The precise impact is still hard to gauge. But economists, investors, and bankers worry that this “economic fire” sparked by Trump could lead to a global recession.
Myanmar isn’t a major global exporter, and given its ongoing internal war, it’s somewhat insulated from the direct shocks of the global economy. Still, Myanmar could face indirect consequences.
Myanmar’s economy relies heavily on natural gas exports, gems, minerals, gold, illicit drug production, and remittances from millions of citizens working abroad. A global economic downturn would reduce demand, lower commodity prices, and potentially cost many Myanmar migrant workers their jobs, cutting off a crucial flow of income.
If a global recession hits, Myanmar—already devastated by civil war—will suffer even more. Falling global demand could depress prices for Myanmar’s agricultural and natural resource exports. Foreign workers may lose jobs. And the already fragile domestic economy could weaken further.
While some may think that the resilience of the Myanmar people will see them through, the truth is that the country is extremely vulnerable. The trade war, if it escalates into a global economic downturn, will inevitably cause collateral damage for Myanmar too.