“Myanmar Spring Chronicle – April 22 Overview”,
published by MoeMaKa on April 23, 2025*:
Myanmar Military Reenters Lashio in Full Force
In recent days, news surrounding the handover of Lashio, the junta’s reassertion of control, and China’s role in brokering a ceasefire have dominated headlines. The return of Lashio to the military appears to be the result of an agreement between the junta and the MNDAA (Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army), reportedly reached before the Thingyan holiday.
As early signs of the handover, public service offices in Lashio—such as hospitals and electric utility departments—began relocating their equipment and staff to Hseni, Chinshwehaw, and Laukkai. Later, MNDAA troops also began withdrawing from Lashio.
Just before the end of the Thingyan holiday, the junta sent civilian administrative personnel back into the city. Then, on April 22, a large military convoy—over 120 military vehicles and dozens of civilian vehicles—rolled into Lashio from Mongyai, which has served as a temporary base for the junta’s Northeastern Military Command since losing Lashio.
This full-scale military reentry was likely intended to send a message to the public and other armed groups that the junta has regained control.
Symbolism, Tension, and Strategic Messaging
Though the military regained Lashio through negotiation rather than a battlefield victory, some pro-military voices expressed dissatisfaction with the peaceful handover. For the junta, however, this transfer may be used to frame the MNDAA’s role in Operation 1027 as finished, signaling its withdrawal from broader revolutionary coordination.
Speculation has emerged that MNDAA’s cooperation with other resistance groups may also have ended. But no official statements confirming or denying these claims have been issued by any involved parties.
Chinese representatives, reportedly led by Special Envoy Deng Xijun, were also seen in Lashio to observe the handover. Though unconfirmed officially, sources suggest Deng played a direct role in monitoring the transition.
Was It a Negotiated Exchange or a Forced Concession?
The MNDAA’s agreement to hand over control of 12 city districts in Lashio raises questions about what, if anything, the junta conceded in return. Was it a mutual agreement, or a result of Chinese pressure?
One clear outcome is that the ceasefire agreement prohibits airstrikes against MNDAA-controlled areas, suggesting the junta had to offer something in exchange. The full extent of any additional concessions remains unknown, as both sides have remained silent, reportedly as part of their agreement following the January Kunming negotiations.
Back in January, a source told Myanmar Now that Lashio’s return was part of the Kunming discussions, although no public confirmation followed.
Why the Secrecy?
Publicly announcing ceasefire deals or exchanges can lead to backlash, loss of leverage, or public misinterpretation. The lack of transparency may be a deliberate tactic to avoid disrupting the implementation or provoking premature reactions from other stakeholders.
Meanwhile, many Lashio residents, who lived under MNDAA administration for nearly nine months, have voiced concerns about the lack of communication and clarity from the MNDAA regarding the transition.
During its time in Lashio, MNDAA had reissued temporary vehicle permits, worked to reopen hospitals, and tried to restore electricity services. However, the removal of medical and utility equipment during the withdrawal reportedly upset some residents.
Unanswered Questions and Regional Impact
Despite the magnitude of the Lashio handover, no official statements have been issued by allied resistance groups, the NUG, or other ethnic armed organizations. The Northern Brotherhood Alliance—of which MNDAA is a founding member—has remained silent.
It is apparent that China’s pressure was decisive, yet no group has publicly criticized MNDAA or China. This silence suggests an intentional avoidance of confrontation with a powerful patron like China.
Some observers worry that China may now push other ethnic armed groups into similar ceasefire agreements, aiming to de-escalate the broader conflict in northern Myanmar. There are also concerns that the junta, emboldened by Lashio’s return, might launch new offensives against the TNLA, another major player in northern Shan State.
What Do the Allies Think?
Questions are now being raised about how PLA, BPLA, KNDF, and PDF units from Sagaing—who had assisted in the capture of Lashio—feel about MNDAA’s withdrawal. But at present, no one is willing to speak publicly about these internal dynamics.