“Myanmar Spring Chronicle – April 2 Scene”
MoeMaKha, April 3, 2025
Armed groups declare unilateral ceasefires and suspensions of offensives
Following the March 28 earthquake that struck Sagaing Region and caused massive devastation—killing thousands, injuring many more, and displacing millions—Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) announced on March 29 that it would suspend military operations for two weeks. The Ministry of Defense under the NUG issued a separate statement declaring that the ceasefire would apply to quake-affected and nearby areas, effective from March 30 to April 12. The announcement also called on local and international humanitarian organizations to provide urgent assistance and protection in the affected areas.
Although it is unclear exactly where the NUG’s forces are operating, it is assumed that the NUG-controlled armed groups are expected to follow the directive.
On the night of April 1, the “Northern Brotherhood Alliance”—comprised of the AA (Arakan Army), TNLA (Ta’ang National Liberation Army), and MNDAA (Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army)—also announced a one-month unilateral ceasefire. They stated that the move was aimed at facilitating rapid and effective disaster relief efforts. They emphasized that aside from defensive measures in areas where battles with the military council are ongoing, they would not initiate any new offensives during the one-month ceasefire period from April 1 to 30.
The military council, for its part, announced on April 2 a 20-day ceasefire and suspension of offensive operations. Just hours after the announcement, the KIO (Kachin Independence Organization) Central Committee declared that it would also suspend its military operations. Their ceasefire period aligns with the military council’s timeline, from April 2 to 22.
The quake-affected regions include Sagaing, Mandalay, Bago, and the southern parts of Shan State. Areas like Inle and Taunggyi in Shan State experienced deaths and destruction, and they have been included in relief zones. These areas are conflict zones with military council border guard forces, PNLA/PNLO, and Kayah-related resistance forces operating in or near them. Around Pyinmana, Naypyidaw, both NUG/MOD People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) and unaffiliated regional defense forces are present, but their response to these ceasefire announcements is not yet known.
As central Myanmar reels from one of the worst earthquakes in a century, the mutual ceasefires aim to allow unhindered humanitarian efforts in contested areas. These truces vary in duration, from two weeks to up to a month.
The civil war has compounded the disaster’s effects. Many families who fled Kachin and northern Shan States due to conflict and were sheltering in Mandalay have become victims of the earthquake—killed or injured—according to media and social media reports.
It’s believed that if battles and airstrikes hadn’t driven people to Mandalay, they would not have died in this earthquake. While war can be fled, a natural disaster like this could not be avoided—an unfortunate reality.
This two-to-four-week suspension of offensives is seen by some as an opportunity for renewed political dialogue to address the country’s internal conflict. But in the immediate aftermath of this disaster—which will require massive financial and time investments for recovery—some political analysts advocating for peace talks have faced backlash on social media.
Critics argue that the military council bears full responsibility for the current crisis and is not a trustworthy entity. They say that instead of calling for dialogue, ethnic armed groups and newly formed PDFs from the Spring Revolution period should take advantage of the military council’s weakened state to press for military victory.
They point to the regime’s administrative disarray and believe it should be exploited. Still, these views have not gained wide support, and we’ve instead seen a wave of ceasefire declarations.
Meanwhile, the general public continues to suffer deeply from the consequences of civil war. Now, they’re also reeling from one of the most devastating earthquakes in a century. It is crucial that political and military leaders take the lives and welfare of the people into serious consideration.