“Myanmar Spring Chronicle – April 16 Overview”
published by MoeMaKa on April 17, 2025:
🚫 Armed Groups Oppose Channeling Earthquake Aid Through Military Junta
Ahead of the expected meeting on April 17 in Bangkok between Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, there are growing concerns that the junta is gaining diplomatic legitimacy under the pretext of earthquake relief coordination.
Although Malaysia has clarified that the meeting is not on behalf of ASEAN but to discuss humanitarian assistance and extending the ceasefire, the optics suggest the junta is gaining ground diplomatically.
🇲🇾 Malaysia’s Role in ASEAN Engagement
Malaysia has historically taken a strong stance against Myanmar’s military regime since the 2021 coup. Former Malaysian foreign ministers often pushed ASEAN to apply more pressure on the junta.
Currently, Malaysia holds the ASEAN chair, and its Prime Minister has appointed Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Thai Prime Minister and father of the current Thai PM, as an adviser on Myanmar affairs. Thaksin has reportedly met with both the junta leader and some ethnic armed groups — raising further speculation about a shift in ASEAN’s strategy beyond the long-standing Five-Point Consensus.
📝 Statement from NUG, Ethnic Armed Groups & Civil Society
On April 16, one day before the Bangkok meeting, the National Unity Government (NUG), along with four armed groups (KNU, KNPP, CNF, ABSDF), the Women’s League of Burma, the Rohingya National Alliance, and several unnamed organizations issued a joint statement.
The statement, titled “Position Statement Regarding the Meeting Between Min Aung Hlaing and ASEAN Leaders”, outlines 9 points. While not aggressively worded overall, Point 9 strongly opposes delivering humanitarian aid through the military junta, warning that doing so would open the door to political exploitation.
Other parts of the statement include cautionary phrases like:
-
“Should be noted carefully,”
-
“Of serious concern,” and
-
“Attention must be paid.”
In Point 8, the groups state:
“Engagements with the junta should be approached with extreme caution,”
without explicitly demanding that all contact be avoided.
🔍 Who Controls What?
The statement also notes that the junta controls only 22% of Myanmar’s territory, and urges the international community to engage not only with the junta, but also with the NUG and ethnic resistance groups who control large parts of the country.
However, the extent to which this joint statement influences ASEAN leaders remains uncertain.
🔄 Will ASEAN Change Course?
ASEAN has diplomatically isolated the junta and pressured it for four years to implement the Five-Point Consensus. But with no results, there are now concerns that ASEAN might change direction — either by:
-
Escalating pressure (e.g., suspending Myanmar from ASEAN); or
-
Ending isolation and re-engaging with the junta to push for a ceasefire.
Current signs suggest ASEAN is leaning toward re-engagement. The Malaysian PM’s decision to meet with the junta leader without preconditions signals a shift toward diplomatic contact rather than continued isolation.
📉 Who Benefits from This Meeting?
It appears that the junta may benefit more from the April 17 meeting than ASEAN does. It gives the appearance of diplomatic legitimacy at a time when the junta is being widely condemned for ongoing violence and humanitarian obstruction.
The true outcomes of the meeting — whether it results in meaningful humanitarian coordination or just strengthens the junta’s image — will become clear in the days that follow.