Myanmar Spring Chronicle – March 23 Overview
MoeMaKa, March 24, 2025
Implications of the MNDAA & Military Council’s Negotiations in Kunming
After an initial meeting in January between the Myanmar military council and the Kokang armed group MNDAA, a follow-up negotiation took place on March 22 in Kunming, China, as previously agreed.
Reports emerging in the days following the meeting suggest that the MNDAA may be required to withdraw from Lashio by the end of May or June. Although no official statements have been made regarding the results of the discussions, certain details have been leaked to the media by sources close to the matter. While other topics were likely discussed, the potential MNDAA withdrawal from Lashio appears to be a key issue.
Lashio holds strategic importance for the military council as the headquarters of the Northeast Military Command, a crucial trade hub connecting northern Shan State with China, and a key administrative center. Regaining control of Lashio is thus a significant objective for the junta.
During the second phase of Operation 1027 in mid-2024, MNDAA successfully captured Lashio and the Northeast Military Command headquarters after months of intense fighting. This victory severely undermined the junta’s prestige while granting the MNDAA significant military and economic leverage in northern Shan State.
Given this, the junta has sought to reclaim its lost prestige with China’s backing, reportedly pressuring MNDAA to withdraw. Recent reports on social media indicate that some MNDAA troops have already begun moving out of Lashio towards Theinni, suggesting preparations for a withdrawal.
Before and during the battle for Lashio, various armed groups—including the PDF, BPLA, PLA, and KNDF from central and southeastern Myanmar—fought under MNDAA’s command. If MNDAA withdraws, the reaction of these allied groups remains uncertain, as their agreement with MNDAA has not been clearly disclosed.
For the junta, retaking Lashio with China’s support could weaken the relationship between ethnic armed groups and the PDF alliance, as each faction prioritizes its own interests over broader revolutionary goals.
For Lashio’s residents, the prospect of the military council’s return raises fears of instability. The city witnessed mass displacement in July and August last year, along with artillery strikes, air raids, and looting. Having lived under MNDAA control for eight months, concerns grow over possible retaliation against those who supported MNDAA, as well as the future of public services like healthcare and education under junta rule.
This situation highlights a broader challenge in Myanmar’s political landscape: while many believe in a unified military strategy to overthrow the junta, external pressures—particularly from China—are pushing some groups to prioritize their regional autonomy over the larger revolutionary movement. The long-term implications of these choices will shape future military and political alliances.
Ultimately, the events unfolding in Lashio may serve as a stark example of realpolitik, where self-interest prevails over ideology and collective aspirations.