Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 29 Perspective
MoeMaKa, November 2024
Struggles, Challenges, and Progress of Ethnic Revolutionary Forces
Ethnic revolutionary groups across Myanmar continue their fight against the military dictatorship in various regions, including ethnic and non-ethnic territories. Analysts are paying close attention to China’s pressure on the Spring Revolution’s forces, particularly the Kokang and Ta’ang armed groups. Recently, Thailand’s military demanded the withdrawal of bases of the Wa ethnic armed group near the border. Shortly after, reports surfaced that the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor had filed a request to issue an arrest warrant for Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing. The ICC’s request is tied to allegations of genocide against the Rohingya in Rakhine State in 2017, holding Min Aung Hlaing accountable for orchestrating the atrocities. This application resonates with public sentiment, as Min Aung Hlaing is currently accused of leading mass killings of ethnic Myanmar communities amid the ongoing civil conflict.
Recently, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) announced on November 28, 2024, that it had dissolved the Kachin Special Region (1), an area it had taken over in eastern Kachin State. The KIA stated in its release that the military regimes of the past had established the special region to consolidate power, leading to divisions among the Kachin people. The statement declared that the Kachin Special Region (1) designation would no longer exist, calling for the collaboration of all residents and investors in the region to work with the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) toward mutual development.
As revolutionary movements persist, they face scrutiny from multiple angles. Observers note that anti-military forces are advancing according to their own timelines and circumstances, striving toward their objectives.
In September 2024, nine ethnic resistance groups declared their collective commitment to establishing a federal system built on “bottom-up federalism.” This framework envisions state-level empowerment as the foundation for national strength. The groups involved include the Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), Chin National Front (CNF), Karenni Interim Coordination Council (KSCC), Pa-O National Federal Council (PNFC), Mon State Party- Anti-Dictatorship (MNSP-AD), Mon State Federal Council (MSFC), Ta’ang Political Consultative Committee (TPCC), and Women’s League of Burma (WLB).
Among these, the Karenni Interim Coordination Council (KSCC) was the first to be established. Formed on June 12, 2023, it serves as a governance framework uniting armed resistance groups within Kayah State. The council aims to bring stability to the region, organize administrative structures in liberated territories, and manage judiciary systems. On October 29, 2024, the council also formed its armed wing, the Kayan National Army.
The Chinland Council is another key entity, established in December 2023, with representation from 235 Chin leaders. However, it faced opposition from some Chin organizations, such as the Zomi Central Council, which expressed dissatisfaction over perceived exclusion.
In Rakhine State, the Arakan Army (AA) continues to push against military presence, seeking to establish control over the region despite intensified airstrikes by the junta. The AA has gained ground in key locations, including Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Ngapali, and is expanding its influence.
The broader struggle includes coordinated efforts in central Myanmar, the dry zone, and southern military regions. Each area is pursuing liberation and self-determination under its unique circumstances. The junta, facing international isolation and mounting losses, shows no signs of consolidating the dominance it once held. It is increasingly constrained in both military and political arenas, making dialogue with revolutionary forces an inevitable prospect.
As the revolution advances, the situation remains dynamic, with various groups steadily building governance and military structures to counter the junta’s grip.