Myanmar Spring Chronicle – December 19 Scene
Moemaka, December 20, 2024
Military Council Leadership Reshuffle and Myanmar-Related Talks in Thailand
In recent days, the military council announced a reshuffle of key positions within its ranks, including the Minister of Defense, Commander-in-Chiefs (Army, Navy, Air), and other senior military officials.
General Tin Aung San from the Navy, who previously held the position of Minister of Defense, was reassigned to the Prime Minister’s Office as Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. His role as Defense Minister was taken over by General Maung Maung Aye, while Lieutenant General Kyaw Swar Lin, a trusted associate of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, was promoted to Chief of Defense Services Coordinator. Lieutenant General Kyaw Swar Lin’s previous role as Chief of Staff (Army) was filled by General Than Htike from the Northern Command.
The main implication of this reshuffle appears to be dissatisfaction with General Tin Aung San, who was relegated to a relatively less significant post. General Maung Maung Aye was appointed Defense Minister, while the now-vacant Chief of Defense Services Coordinator role went to Lieutenant General Kyaw Swar Lin, who lacks extensive military experience but is favored by Min Aung Hlaing.
Frequent leadership changes within the military indicate challenges the junta faces, such as military setbacks, losses of key bases and towns, and growing dissatisfaction among top military leaders—except Min Aung Hlaing and Soe Win. Such reshuffles suggest blame-shifting and an effort by Min Aung Hlaing to preserve his own credibility amidst these failures.
Recent incidents include the loss of a border post in Maungdaw, Rakhine State, where officers at various levels faced fatal outcomes or capture by the Arakan Army (AA). These events add to previous losses, such as Lashio in Northern Shan State in August, along with the Western Command headquarters near Ann facing imminent threat.
The frequent reshuffling of military leadership positions since the coup reflects a lack of stability. While Min Aung Hlaing may appear in control, the repeated changes point to a deeper instability and dissatisfaction within the military hierarchy. Moreover, appointments based on personal loyalty rather than military competence may be contributing to the junta’s continuous setbacks.
Myanmar-Related Informal Talks in Thailand
Another key development is the two-day informal talks on Myanmar held on December 19 and 20 in Bangkok, hosted by Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Proposed during ASEAN summits earlier this year, these talks are not directly linked to ASEAN. Instead, representatives from six countries—Myanmar, China, Bangladesh, India, Laos, and Thailand—participated.
The agenda is understood to focus on cross-border impacts of Myanmar’s internal conflicts, such as refugee flows, illegal arms smuggling, and border trade disruptions. However, the junta reportedly prioritized discussing its plans for elections in 2025, according to statements from the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Neighboring countries are expected to express concerns about the influx of refugees, the intensification of drug production fueled by ongoing conflicts, and the destabilization of border regions.
It is noteworthy that the talks involved only representatives of the military council and excluded groups such as ethnic armed organizations or the National Unity Government (NUG). This underscores the focus on addressing spillover effects of Myanmar’s internal strife rather than resolving the country’s broader political crisis.
These talks can be seen as an effort to engage with the junta on managing the consequences of ongoing conflicts, rather than seeking a comprehensive solution to Myanmar’s instability.