Myanmar Spring Chronicle – December 5 Overview
MoeMaKa, December 6, 2024
Intense Battles in Kachin State: Bhamo and Mansi Under Threat
In northern and eastern Kachin State, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) continues its operations with no sign of slowing down, despite decreasing clashes in northern Shan State. This change aligns with China’s shifting policies towards Myanmar since August. Over recent weeks, the KIA successfully seized areas such as Panwa and Kanpiketi, located in the northeastern special region of Kachin State (Special Region 1). These territories, previously controlled by the NDA-K after the dissolution of the Burmese Communist Party, are known for their lucrative rare earth minerals, which have generated billions in export revenue to China over recent years.
The KIA is now reportedly advancing southward, targeting key towns like Mansi and Bhamo, near the Chinese border.
China’s Influence on Armed Ethnic Groups
China has been pressuring Myanmar’s border-based ethnic armed groups to cease hostilities and engage in negotiations. Beijing has enforced compliance by closing border trade posts and restricting goods flow. In response, groups like the TNLA and MNDAA have expressed willingness to negotiate with the military council. However, the KIA has shown no intention of retreating and continues its offensives, capturing territories and engaging in urban warfare near Bhamo and Mansi.
The KIA may have prepared contingencies to bypass China’s trade restrictions, seizing opportunities presented by the Myanmar military’s weakened position to expand its controlled territories.
Resource Control and Economic Stakes
Having captured key border trade hubs, the KIA is striving to maintain control over these regions, which are rich in valuable jade and rare earth minerals. Control over these resources is critical for financing both the ongoing conflict and future reconstruction efforts. While the KIA emphasizes its fight for the Kachin people’s liberation from military dictatorship, resource-driven motivations also play a role, reflecting the intersection of war and economic interests.
Retaliation and Countermeasures
In response to China’s pressure, the KIO/KIA has countered by restricting mineral trade across the border. Although the KIA has limited exports of rare earth minerals, the trade continues, albeit at lower prices that favor Chinese buyers. Analysts have noted that Myanmar’s side has often been left with minimal benefits in this trade dynamic.
Broader Implications of Resource Mismanagement
The uneven distribution of natural resources within Myanmar has long been a driver of civil conflict. The link between resource control and warfare remains central to understanding the country’s prolonged struggles.
Myanmar Military’s Counteroffensives
While the Myanmar military has lost ground in Kachin State, it is ramping up operations in areas like northern Mandalay and southern Kachin, aiming to reclaim territories held by allied groups such as the TNLA and MDY-PDF. Reports suggest intensified operations in Matayar and Thabeikkyin townships, targeting territories reclaimed by local PDFs close to Mandalay.
Simultaneously, skirmishes in southern Shan State’s Naung Cho and adjacent areas have subsided following months of intense fighting. The military appears to be regrouping, strengthening its positions, and launching renewed offensives in strategic northern areas.
This complex situation underscores the intricate connections between resource control, regional influence, and the ongoing struggle for power in Myanmar.