Myanmar Spring Chronicle – December 9 Insights
Moemaka, December 10, 2024
Geopolitics, Military Affairs, and Neighboring Foreign Influence
An interesting piece of news is that while China is pressuring the “Three Brotherhood Alliance” in the north (Kokang, Ta’ang, and AA), the Chinese government invited General N’Ban La, the leader of the Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA), for discussions in Beijing.
At a time when fighting is escalating in Kachin State, the Chinese central government has reportedly invited General N’Ban La, Chairman of the KIO/KIA, to Beijing. On December 8, a Kachin military source confirmed that the KIO chairman had traveled to China. This meeting differs from usual engagements with Chinese special envoys or regional authorities, as this invitation extends to Beijing itself.
After the KIA launched a large-scale offensive in March 2024, its troops are currently advancing towards Bhamo, the second-largest city in Kachin State, where several junta battalions and the Operational Command Headquarters (21) are based. Although China has urged for a halt to border clashes, the KIA has taken control of key border trading towns, including Loije and Kanpaikti, as well as all of Kachin’s Special Region 1. Following the military coup, the KIA seized 14 towns in Kachin State, in addition to Mongbain and Namphangka villages in northern Shan State, capturing multiple junta battalions.
Kachin news outlets and organizations have praised the role and stance of the KIO/KIA compared to other ethnic groups, emphasizing their commitment to the Spring Revolution and their refusal to accept military rule under the leadership of General N’Ban La. At 80 years old, General N’Ban La remains active and was honored in October 2024 for his 60 years of military service.
The Kachin Independence Organization has also participated in Union-level ceasefire talks, having previously led the UNFC alliance of ethnic armed groups. Later, the KIO/KIA rejected the NCA and joined the FPNCC bloc alongside the UWSA, continuing its armed struggle.
During the Spring Revolution, the KIA rebuilt its arms factories, forged alliances with the NUG, and provided training to NUG-affiliated PDFs, while leading operations and collaborating with other ethnic groups like the AA, TNLA, CNF, and MNDAA. Analysts highlight the KIA’s support in military training, basic aid, and joint operations.
Geopolitically, analysts note that the KIA and its leadership have a distinct degree of independence from China compared to the Wa, Kokang, and Palaung groups. The KIA is perceived to have strategic strength due to its access to natural resources and critical transportation routes. Consequently, General N’Ban La’s trip to China is seen as significant, with observers noting that it may yield different outcomes compared to engagements with other ethnic groups more heavily reliant on China.
Myanmar’s abundant natural resources, oil and gas supplies, and geographically strategic routes have prolonged the junta’s survival while simultaneously supporting the resistance movements. Local economies, trade routes, and taxation systems within ethnic areas continue to sustain these regions. Meanwhile, neighboring and foreign nations also maintain vested interests and influence over these critical areas.
Drawing parallels, analysts note how Syria’s Assad regime recently collapsed under internal resistance and foreign pressure. The importance of geopolitics, military influence, and foreign intervention is evident in the downfall of regimes like Assad’s. For example, in the Israel-Palestine conflict, Israel not only attacked Hamas in Gaza but also weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon and its backer, Iran, which indirectly impacted Syria. Due to Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine, its support for Syria also waned, enabling Syrian opposition forces to advance.
While the United States claims non-interference, Western sanctions significantly weakened Assad’s government. At the same time, U.S. forces continued targeting extremist groups like ISIS through drone and missile strikes, while Turkey backed certain opposition forces. Syria’s military, plagued by corruption, saw generals pocketing salaries while neglecting soldiers, leading to diminished combat strength. Assad’s survival relied on Russian and Iranian military support. Additionally, Syria’s oil and gas resources were nearly fully blockaded, with U.S. allies reportedly exploiting these resources, ultimately weakening Assad’s regime.
Analysts conclude that Israel’s decisive operations against Hamas and Hezbollah indirectly undermined Iran and Syria, contributing to Assad’s downfall.
In Myanmar’s context, while China remains dominant in exploiting natural resources, oil, and gas, other foreign powers have limited footprints. Nevertheless, Spring Revolution leaders remain vigilant as they navigate geopolitical rivalries and foreign political maneuvers.