Myanmar Spring Chronicle – December 8 Viewpoint
MoeMaKa, December 9, 2024
Could Syria be an inspiration for Myanmar’s revolution?
It was reported yesterday that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family abruptly departed the country by plane, though the destination remained unknown. The president fled the country in haste as armed insurgent groups advanced towards the outskirts of the capital, Damascus. Events like this have occurred globally, including the recent situation in Bangladesh where Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee the capital Dhaka by plane within minutes or hours as protesters nearly entered the presidential residence.
In Bangladesh’s case, the prime minister’s downfall was not due to armed revolution but rather weeks and months of protests in the capital, which pressured the military into disobeying the prime minister’s orders. Consequently, she had no choice but to flee the country.
However, in Syria, Assad’s fall resulted from armed forces rapidly capturing government-controlled towns one after another within days. Assad no longer had the strength or time to resist such advances.
Similarly, South Korea faced a political crisis in recent days. When the president was unable to surpass the parliamentary opposition party, he ordered the defense minister to declare martial law. However, martial law was rescinded overnight, leading to the president’s failure. The military refrained from fully implementing the president’s orders, which helped prevent a political crisis, violent clashes, arrests, and crackdowns in South Korea.
With examples from Bangladesh and South Korea aside, Syria’s current situation raises a critical question for Myanmar: What lessons can Myanmar draw from the armed insurgents’ successful capture of Damascus, forcing Assad to flee? One point of discussion is whether foreign support contributed to HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) forces capturing Damascus and, if so, which countries provided that assistance.
HTS had been based in northern territories near the Turkish border for years before capturing towns. Reports indicate that Turkey provided support to HTS. Without foreign military aid, capturing cities would have been much harder for HTS. In the Middle East, where conflicts are frequent, obtaining arms and ammunition is not overly difficult, but financial resources and government backing are still critical.
In Myanmar’s case, the armed resistance against the military junta has yet to secure significant foreign military assistance. Instead, armed groups rely on revenues from selling natural resources like timber, minerals, and gems or by collecting taxes at checkpoints. This financial limitation makes it challenging to launch large-scale military offensives.
Another aspect to consider is the trade-offs and vested interests that come with foreign assistance. For Syrian insurgents, the countries or organizations providing aid may expect reciprocal commitments. In the Middle East, the U.S.-Russia rivalry and Turkey’s involvement contribute to instability, even after Assad’s fall. Russia maintains military bases in Syria, as does the U.S., complicating the country’s ability to establish independent stability.
For Myanmar, one takeaway is that securing substantial military support from foreign nations may be critical for armed groups to challenge the junta effectively. However, China has already cautioned against foreign military intervention in Myanmar. While China does not directly provide weapons to the junta, it exerts economic and diplomatic pressure on ethnic armed groups.
Although parallels and lessons can be drawn from Syria’s situation, Myanmar’s geopolitical position as a neighbor of China — with significant Chinese investments in the country — remains a crucial and unavoidable factor.