Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 4 Overview
(MoeMaKa, November 5, 2024)
What Will Be the Impact of Min Aung Hlaing’s Trip to China?
As Myanmar approaches nearly four years under military rule, Min Aung Hlaing’s first official trip to China as the head of the junta marks a significant and noteworthy visit.
Since the military coup, it has been no secret that the junta has sought China’s full support. Over nearly a decade, the Myanmar military has been uneasy about issues along the China-Myanmar border, such as relations with ethnic armed groups, cross-border trade, and arms supplies. As China grows into a global power capable of rivaling the United States economically and militarily, and as a neighboring country and major trading partner, the Myanmar military views China as a potential ally that can stand against international pressure on issues like human rights and democracy.
At the same time, with China’s economic interests intertwined in Myanmar and its influence over armed ethnic groups that Myanmar’s military sees as threats, the junta has also been considering Russia as an alternative military ally and arms supplier. The reality is that Myanmar’s military needs either China or Russia for diplomatic backing and support in the international arena.
China’s stance after the 2021 coup has been one of cautious disapproval, viewing the instability with concern. This contrasts with the previous decade (2011–2021) of relative political stability in Myanmar that allowed China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to involve Myanmar as a participant. China sees Myanmar as a key partner and wants political and military stability there to protect its interests.
Recent shifts in the battlefield in Myanmar, where ethnic armed groups are rapidly gaining territory and influence, may have pressured China to consider altering its policies toward Myanmar’s military. For example, China has been pressing for a ceasefire and encouraging the junta to hold elections, with most analysts interpreting these actions as part of a broader Chinese policy shift.
This visit raises questions: Will Min Aung Hlaing and China work toward strengthening relations, or will China continue to pressure him to hold elections sooner? Will China succeed in curbing ethnic armed group activity along the border, and to what extent will Myanmar’s junta listen? These questions are expected to become clearer in the coming months.