Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 10 Update
(MoeMaKa) November 11, 2024
Intense Fighting in Rakhine and Chin States: The Junta’s Military Strategy
Political and military analysts have observed that armed conflicts in Myanmar often intensify during the dry season, from November to the end of May, when the rainy season begins. This period, sometimes called the “open season,” allows easier movement of supplies and weapons through newly accessible dry routes in the mountains. Historically, this pattern was true due to limited transport options. In past decades, transporting artillery and ammunition required forced civilian laborers to carry supplies through difficult terrain. Now, with more roads and vehicles available, conflicts continue unabated regardless of the season. For example, heavy fighting persisted in northern Shan, Karen, Rakhine, and Kachin states throughout last year’s rainy season, showing no seasonal pause.
Currently, the most intense conflicts are occurring in southern, western, and eastern Rakhine and in southern and central Chin State. In northern Shan State, prolonged clashes are also ongoing in certain areas. In Rakhine, significant battles are happening around Ann Township and the Western Command Headquarters, with the Arakan Army (AA) seizing military posts. The AA has been pressing to capture the headquarters, which could cut off junta supply lines to remaining territories in Rakhine, forcing them to rely on air or water routes for resupply.
Battles are also spreading to other towns in southern Rakhine. In Taungup Township, intense fighting has displaced residents, forcing them to flee by road or through nearby forests to Pathein District in western Bago Region. If the AA gains control of Taungup, the junta could lose its hold over all of southern Rakhine.
In Chin State, clashes are escalating in the south and center, especially in Mindat and Falam. Mindat, which was the first town in Chin State to organize a defense force after the military takeover, has experienced fierce fighting. Similarly, in Falam, the former administrative center under the Chin Special Division, fighting has forced residents to flee for the first time since the junta took power. In Thantlang, which is already depopulated, ongoing battles between the junta’s forces and Chin resistance forces have intensified.
Elsewhere, clashes are intense near Taung Kham Village in Namhkan Township, northern Shan, where the TNLA has been fighting to capture junta posts for months. This area is strategically important as it lies between northern and southern Shan and is close to northeastern Mandalay.
Nationwide, the junta is facing widespread resistance in Kachin, northern Shan, Rakhine, and Chin states. In Sagaing, Tanintharyi, Karen, Mon, and Kayah regions, while fighting hasn’t fully stopped, large-scale defensive actions or significant territory losses for the junta have not yet been observed.
Recently, China’s strengthened ties with the junta could influence the junta’s capacity to hold or reclaim territory in areas where it has lost control, potentially increasing its strategic efforts in some regions.