Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 5 Perspective
(MoeMaKa) November 6, 2024
Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election on Myanmar and the Beginning of the Military Council Leader’s Visit to China
As the U.S. presidential election, held every four years, approaches, the Democratic Party’s current Vice President Kamala Harris is facing off against former Republican President Donald Trump. The outcome of this election holds potential implications for Myanmar’s political situation, making it an area of interest.
For Myanmar’s pro-democracy and human rights groups, ethnic armed groups fighting the military regime, and civil society organizations advocating for democracy, the U.S. election results could have a significant impact on their cause, and many are closely watching it.
Historically, the Democratic Party in the U.S. has shown more interest in issues related to democracy, human rights, and minority rights in Myanmar, whereas the Republican Party is perceived as having a more traditional view. Nevertheless, there have been examples of Republican members of Congress and former Republican presidents actively supporting pro-democracy forces in Myanmar. However, current Republican candidate Donald Trump is seen as an exception, as he has been noted for his indifference toward women’s rights and minority rights and has taken a stance against immigration. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate is seen as likely to continue the party’s policy positions on Myanmar. Therefore, some ethnic armed groups and democracy advocates in Myanmar hope for a Kamala Harris victory.
On the other hand, among Myanmar-Americans with U.S. citizenship who have the right to vote, many still support Trump. Trump has previously stated he would impose stricter immigration laws if re-elected, and many believe he will pursue this direction. This has led some to question why certain Myanmar-Americans would support Trump. If Harris wins, the United States is expected to maintain its current Myanmar policy, whereas a Trump victory may bring changes in policy. However, the U.S. is unlikely to engage as directly in Myanmar as it has in conflicts like Ukraine-Russia or Gaza-Lebanon. If the U.S. did become more involved, it could provoke a stronger response from neighboring China.
In summary, the U.S. presidential election could affect Myanmar to some degree, as it does for many countries around the world.
Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military leader has begun a five-day visit to China on November 5. This marks the first formal invitation extended by China to Myanmar’s military leader since the 2021 coup. In addition to the Mekong Region meetings, the invitation from China may signal an intent to control border conflicts, support Myanmar’s involvement in initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and address border security concerns. China could see the military council as a key partner in stabilizing its interests along its borders. The nature of the agreements and outcomes between China and Myanmar’s military council may become clearer in the coming days.